Discussing AI / AI capex in 2026

I'm not an AI expert but follow the industry pretty closely in order to at least have a baseline understanding of whats driving the market and to invest in individual names within the industry. People have been talking about the "bubble" and when it will pop for years now - I'm not dismissive of this viewpoint but I don't think there is much risk of it happening as imminently as a lot of people seem to believe. I think that as with the internet in the 90's, it is easy to understand the end game capabilities of AI - anyone who doesn't believe this tech will be unbelievably disruptive and will hugely reshape society to an even greater extent than the internet, is burying their head in the sand in my opinion. That said, the question of "when" is a fair one. You hear some of the talking heads talking about massive job displacement within 1-2 years. Others seem to have a much slower timeline. Nobody knows... Period. It is all guesswork and even people within the leading labs can't predict timelines reliably. I do think there are elements of the timeline that are more predictable though - for instance some people were able to predict the memory bottle neck many months ago. In my opinion, one of the major storylines of 2026 will be physical bottle necks significantly affecting build out timelines and consequently capex heading into 2027 - I think this will manifest in the back half of 2026. Over the past couple of years, the environment has essentially been one of "I just need more chips". Hyperscalers bought GPUs from anyone and as fast as they could get them. This dynamic will end and the issue will become "I don't have enough power/shells to plug in any additional racks". This is pretty widely accepted at this point but I think you can still position for the knock on effects. I feel that from a macro perspective this year is going to be choppy and relatively sideways. I think it is a good year to be beta neutral and to try to put on pair trades and pick some winners and some losers. For example, in my opinion NVDA will actually gain share as a result of the dynamic described above. If you are a hyperscaler and you go from "I just need as many chips as I can get" to "I only have 10GW of power, how do i get the most compute I can?" - the result to me is that the most power efficient solutions will come out ahead. Hyperscalers will be willing to pay an enormous premium to maximize their compute given their physical constraints. This will drive share to the best racks. Again, we will no longer be in a "I just need more racks" world. We will be in a "I need the best racks I can possibly get world" - while the dynamic may still hurt NVDA from an overall revenue perspective, and this may weigh on the stock, I think it will hurt AMD more. AMD is already giving away its own equity to get partnerships (and these partnerships have significant contingencies) - I think things will get even more punishing for AMD towards the end of the year. Therefore I think long NVDA short AMD is a good pair trade to put on heading into that period. This is just one example - I think there are many ways to play this dynamic. Interested to hear your thoughts.