Author argues Nvidia's Q1 guidance excludes any China H200 revenue and that the Street is mis-modeling China contribution, while noting the OpenAI deal is close to finalizing.
NVDA — LONG The author argues Nvidia's $78B Q1 guidance is built on zero China H200 contribution, since CFO Colette Kress confirmed no H200 revenue from China yet, meaning the Street is modeling this wrong if it assumes China revenue in Q1. If shipments get approved, the guidance number moves up, and if export controls tighten, Nvidia has already guided around it. On OpenAI, Jensen said they are 'close' to finalizing the partnership, with the FT reporting a $30B deal being negotiated. Main risk is that export controls could tighten again.
That means $78B Q1 guidance is built on zero China contribution. If shipments get approved, that number moves up.
This Reddit post, published February 26, 2026, features u/corenellius discussing NVDA. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/corenellius · Tickers: NVDA