No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
The author provides observations on market rotation rather than a directional investment thesis or fundamental catalyst for the specific assets.
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I’ve been trying to make sense of this rally and I’m not fully convinced it’s a clean expansion phase yet.
Some of the data looks solid:
ISM is at 52.6
Yield curve is positive (+0.60)
VIX cooled to \~19
But at the same time:
Russell 2000 is still down over the last 30 days
DXY is up \~1.3%
Fear & Greed is sitting at 11
That combination feels… mixed.
We’re seeing strong moves in certain pockets (WDC +71% in 3M, FCX +61%, semis pushing higher), but plenty of names are still deep in drawdowns.
To me that looks more rotational than euphoric.
If this was the start of a clean risk-on phase, I’d expect small caps to lead and the dollar to weaken more clearly.
Maybe I’m overthinking it.
How are you guys seeing it?