OSINT on Strait of Hormuz and INSW

stockist420 · 2026-02-23T22:41:58+00:00

=== SUMMARY === - The post presents a bullish thesis on the oil tanker company International Seaways (INSW) using open-source intelligence (OSINT) from satellite radar data to analyze shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and military activity in the Persian Gulf. - The author argues that tanker traffic is increasing significantly, driving up spot rates and profitability for companies like INSW, while geopolitical tensions (the "war premium") are overstated, as satellite data shows no signs of ground-level military escalation. - Quality assessment: This is well-researched, data-driven due diligence (DD) that combines novel alternative data (satellite analysis) with traditional financial metrics (spot rates, earnings estimates, company filings). === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === TICKER - DIRECTION | confidence: 0.95 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/stockist420 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Satellite data shows a 132% increase in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz since August 2025, and tanker spot rates are ~4x INSW's breakeven cost. 2. THE BRIDGE: This high-margin operating environment, combined with a one-time gain from asset sales, suggests INSW's upcoming earnings will significantly beat consensus estimates. 3. THE VERDICT: The combination of surging profitability and an overstated geopolitical risk premium creates a favorable setup for INSW stock to appreciate, particularly around its upcoming earnings report. 4. RISKS: A potential influx of "shadow fleet" tankers could pressure rates, the positive rate environment may already be priced into the stock, and a change in OPEC+ policy could alter market dynamics. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - Satellite data shows +132% increase in Hormuz ship traffic - Tanker spot rates are ~4x INSW's breakeven costs - Zacks ESP suggests a +37% earnings beat is possible - Geopolitical risk premium seems overstated based on OSINT - Author has taken a small position and may add more TICKER - DIRECTION | confidence: 0.70

AI Summary

Summary

The post presents a bullish thesis on the oil tanker company International Seaways (INSW) using open-source intelligence (OSINT) from satellite radar data to analyze shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and military activity in the Persian Gulf.
The author argues that tanker traffic is increasing significantly, driving up spot rates and profitability for companies like INSW, while geopolitical tensions (the "war premium") are overstated, as satellite data shows no signs of ground-level military escalation.
Quality assessment: This is well-researched, data-driven due diligence (DD) that combines novel alternative data (satellite analysis) with traditional financial metrics (spot rates, earnings estimates, company filings).

Score 22

Comments 5

Upvote % 85%

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Edit: Moving this so this is first thing you see and would do so for any other DD I post where I have taken a postion. Note/Disclosure: I have taken a small position in INSW based on my research and will (hopefully) average up after earnings call. Do your own research, not financial advice. Remember you are reading from a random redditor. Also, if you know more please share it,if something is inccorect call it out, that is the point of subs like this.

I used Sentinel1 SAR (synthetic aperture radar) to detect ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz which is the chokepoint where 21% of the world's petroleum passes every day. Metal ship hulls are extremely bright on radar against dark water, so counting them is straightforward.

See images here : https://imgur.com/a/FwKCLVq


Ship detections across three time periods:

| Period | Ships/scene | Large vessels | Medium vessels |
|--------|------------|---------------|----------------|
| Aug 2025 | 239 | 14 | 225 |
| Nov 2025 | 477 | 50 | 427 |
| Feb 2026 | 554 | 41 | 513 |


+132% increase in detected vessels since August. Still climbing Nov to Feb (+16%).


Caveat: per-scene variance is high (different SAR passes cover different amounts of water), and these are snapshots not continuous monitoring. But the upward trend is consistent across multiple scenes and time periods.


The rate environment is a bit insane right now:
- VLCC spot rates +38% month-over-month in January
- Suezmax +106% year-over-year
- Aframax +83% year-over-year
- Source: Kpler Q1 2026 outlook, Hellenic Shipping News

Breakdown of INSW's economics at these rates:
- Fleet breakeven: under $15,000/day
- Current spot rates: ~$67,000/day
- That's a *4x margin over breakeven*
- Fleet of 76 vessels (62 owned, 14 chartered-in)

Zacks Earnings Surprise Predictor: +37%. Consensus estimate is $1.75 EPS. If the ESP is right, actual could be north of $2.40.


INSW sold 5 older tankers for ~$185M, with ~$65M in gains expected to be recognized in Q1 2026. That's a one-time boost on top of the operating performance.

#### The Iran angle 

The same satellite constellation that counts ships can also detect ground-level changes at military bases. I ran InSAR Coherent Change Detection (CCD) on three key Persian Gulf bases across the last month  covering the exact window when Russia-China-Iran kicked off their "Maritime Security Belt 2026" naval exercises.

CCD compare two radar scenes 12 days apart. Coherence of 1.0 = ground unchanged. Coherence near 0 = ground disturbed (vehicles moved, earth excavated, equipment staged). This is how intelligence agencies monitor base activity from space.

I processed 9 InSAR pair  3 bases × 3 time periods through ASF's HyP3 platform:


Three time windows:
Late January (before drills announced)
Early February (US deploys dual carrier strike groups Truman + Lincoln)
Mid-February (Russia docks corvette Stoikiy at Bandar Abbas Feb 19, exercises begin)

Results:

| Base | Side | Jan (Before) | Early Feb | Mid-Feb | Trend |
|------|------|-------------|-----------|---------|-------|
| Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar | US | 0.978 | 0.981 | 0.977 | -0.0% |
| Bandar Abbas Naval Base, Iran | Iran | 0.531 | 0.528 | 0.537 | +1.3% |
| Al Dhafra Air Base, UAE | US | 0.948 | 0.954 | 0.951 | +0.3% |

Every single base is flat. The Russian warship literally docked at Bandar Abbas during our analysis window, and the coherence didn't budge. US bases at 0.95-0.98 coherence = completely stable, routine operations. Bandar Abbas at 0.53 is normal for a port environment (water decorrelates naturally) the key is it didn't DROP.

The exercises are at sea operation, not ground mobilization
Neither side has built new shelters, staged equipment, or altered base infrastructure
The dual carrier deployment is a naval posture not reflected in ground changes
The oil "war premium" in crude is probably overstated

Elevated tanker traffic + no actual disruption = the best setup for tanker stocks. Ships keep flowing, rates stay high, and the geopolitical noise supports a risk premium without actually breaking the trade routes.

I think the bear case is:

1. Shadow fleet oversupply  Kpler warns that shadow fleet VLCCs are now sitting idle after Venezuela was removed from sanctioned trade. If these ships re-enter the commercial market, rate pressure follows.
2. Stock at 52-week high, the rate environment may already be priced in.
3. OPEC+ resuming cuts unwind in April more supply could mean more tanker demand, but could also mean lower oil prices which dampens sentiment.
4. CEO sold 2,000 shares ($128K) on Feb 17. But it's a pre-planned 10b5-1 from March 2025, she still holds 178,421 shares, and the stock is at highs. Routine, not a signal.

The breakdown of the method I am using: 
- Ship detection: Sentinel-1 RTC , absolute threshold ship detection on water mask, size-classified by pixel count
- Base monitoring: Sentinel-1 SLC (ASF) HyP3 INSAR_GAMMA coherence pairs, 12-day same-satellite revisits
- Rate data: Kpler, Hellenic Shipping News, Tankers International
- Earnings data: Zacks, SEC filings

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