▶ Full Post Text
https://preview.redd.it/njmos9z41blg1.png?width=1039&format=png&auto=webp&s=0318ba4fd36f180a8cfd424df3caa0483f3940f4
**Follow-up to last week's post. If you missed it:**
I built a system that scans 500 stocks and hands me trade cards with suggested positions. This week I tore the guts out of the scanner and rebuilt them.
Last week I showed you the system. A lot of you had questions. Some of you tried running it. A few of you roasted me (fair).
The biggest criticism I kept hearing was basically: *"Cool, but how do you know the numbers are actually right?"*
Honestly? I didn't. Not completely. The math worked, the data was real, but I was cutting corners in places I shouldn't have been. The scanner was doing things like calling a delta approximation a "Win Rate" — which is technically misleading. It was computing expected value with a binary model that ignored entire profit zones. And it was dumping every stock through the full pipeline even when half of them had no business being there.
So this weekend I sat down and fixed all of it. Seven PRs in one night. \~2,500 lines of code.
**What the scanner looked like LAST WEEK**
The bones were solid. 500 stocks scanned, scored across four categories (Vol-Edge, Quality, Regime, Info-Edge), convergence gate requiring 3 of 4 above 50, trade cards with real strikes and real prices.
**But under the** hood:
* **No pre-screening.** The system fetched full options chains for ALL candidate stocks, then scored them. That's like reading every resume before checking if the person even has the right degree. Expensive and slow.
* **No social signal.** The scanner had news headlines from Finnhub but zero awareness of what actual traders were saying on X/Twitter in real time.
**What the scanner looks like NOW**
**1. The pipeline got smart — market-metrics pre-filter**
Before: Fetch chains for 50 stocks, then figure out which ones are worth looking at.
Now: One batch API call scores ALL candidate tickers by IV Rank (how expensive options are vs. their own history) and liquidity rating (how easy it is to actually get filled). The top candidates get passed through. Everything else gets cut before we waste a single API call fetching chains.
Result: 542 stocks scanned → 17 passed pre-filter → 8 selected for deep analysis. That's an 85% reduction in API calls. Faster scans, lower costs, same quality.
**2. "Win Rate" is dead — say hello to "Est. PoP"**
I renamed every instance of "Win Rate" to "Est. PoP" (Estimated Probability of Profit). Because that's what it actually is — an estimate, not a guarantee.
But I didn't stop at the label.
***Before:*** PoP = option delta. That's N(d1) in Black-Scholes terms. It's a hedge ratio. It's close to the probability of expiring in the money, but it's not the same thing.
***Now:*** PoP = N(d2) evaluated at the strategy's actual breakeven prices.
What's the difference? Delta says "what's the probability of expiring past this strike price?" The new calculation says "what's the probability of expiring past the breakeven price — which accounts for the premium you collected."
For an iron condor where you collect $1.50 credit on a 170/190 short strangle, your breakevens aren't at 170 and 190. They're at 168.50 and 191.50. The old method ignored that. The new one doesn't.
And every single PoP number now has a tooltip that tells you exactly which method was used — "N(d2) at breakeven prices" or "delta approximation." Full transparency. No other retail scanner does this.
**3. Expected Value actually works now — three-outcome model**
***Before:*** EV was hardcoded to $0. Literally evPerRisk: 0 in the source code. The field existed, the column existed, but the math was never implemented.
***Now:*** Every strategy gets a real Expected Value using a three-outcome model:
* Full profit zone — price stays safely away from your strikes
* Partial profit/loss zone — price lands between your short and long strikes
* Full loss zone — price blows through your protection
The old binary model (win × max profit − lose × max loss) pretends there are only two outcomes. But anyone who's traded a spread knows there's a whole zone in between where you make some money or lose some money. The three-outcome model accounts for that.
Now the scanner shows you Est. EV (expected dollar value per trade) and EV/Risk (expected value per dollar risked). Green means positive edge. Red means negative. If every trade showed green, I'd know something was wrong — in efficient markets, EV should hover near zero. Positive EV comes from the variance risk premium. That's the edge.
**4. Institutional filter panel — 16 filters across 3 tiers**
This is the one I'm most proud of.
***Before:*** No filters. Here are your 8 results. Good luck.
***Now:*** Three tiers of filters that mirror how an actual institutional options desk screens trades:
***Tier 1 — Liquidity Gates (pass/fail)***
* Minimum opn interest per strike
* Maximum bid-ask spread
* Minimum underlying volume
These kill trades you literally cannot execute cleanly. Non-negotiable.
***Tier 2 — Risk Profile (your preference)***
* Defined risk only vs. include unlimited
* Direction: bullish / bearish / neutral / all
* Sell premium vs. buy premium vs. both
* DTE range (min/max sliders)
These shape what KIND of trades you see.
***Tier 3 — Edge Metrics (the math)***
* Minimum Est. PoP
* Minimum Est. EV
* Minimum EV/Risk ratio
* Vol Edge filter (only show trades where IV > HV, or vice versa)
* Minimum IV Rank
* Minimum social sentiment score
These filter by quantitative edge. This is where you go from "show me trades" to "show me trades with an actual statistical advantage."
Every filter tells you WHY something was excluded. Not just "2 filtered out" — you can expand it and see "NKE Bull Put Spread: DTE 22 below minimum 30" or "AAPL Iron Condor: EV/Risk -0.05 below minimum 0."
Filters persist in localStorage. Set them once, they're there every time you come back.
**5. Real-time social sentiment — xAI Grok with X/Twitter search**
***Before:*** News headlines from Finnhub. That's it. No idea what the trading community was actually saying.
***Now:*** For every ticker that makes it to the final 9, the system calls xAI's Grok API with native X search. It pulls recent posts about the stock, classifies them (bullish/bearish/neutral), identifies themes, and computes a sentiment score from -1.0 to +1.0.
The NKE card in the screenshot shows: Score +0.10, 4 bullish / 4 bearish / 2 neutral, themes: tariffs impact, price action, revenue decline, technical breakout, undervalued. With actual posts from real accounts.
This isn't a black box "sentiment score." You can see the posts. You can see who said what. You can decide for yourself whether the social signal matters for this particular trade.
**6. Wide-spread warnings and honest labels everywhere**
Every estimated value has a tooltip explaining the methodology. If the bid/ask prices came from a theoretical model instead of live quotes, you see a warning: "Wide bid-ask spread — prices estimated from theoretical model."
The old version would silently estimate a bid/ask using ±15% of theoretical price and display it like it was real. Now it tells you. Because you deserve to know when you're looking at an estimate vs. a live market quote.
**The trade tracking loop — this is the endgame**
Last week I told you the vision: link the trade cards the algorithm produces to the actual positions I take, so I can track whether the system's suggestions actually succeed.
That loop is now closed.
Here's how it works:
1. Scanner produces trade cards with real strikes, real prices, real risk metrics
2. I select a trade card and add it to my queue
3. I execute the trade on TastyTrade
4. Plaid pulls the transaction data from my brokerage automatically
5. The system matches opening legs to closing legs and builds complete position records
6. Each position links back to the original trade card that suggested it
So now I can answer the question everyone asked last week: *"Does this thing actually work?"*
Not with backtests. Not with paper trading. With real money, real fills, real P&L, tracked end-to-end from algorithm suggestion to brokerage execution to final result.
**What's happening next**
Starting today (Feb 23, 2026) I'm running this live with real capital. I will show you:
* What the scanner picked each week
* Which trade cards I selected
* The actual positions I entered
* Whether they hit or missed
* Running P&L with full transparency
The system either works or it doesn't. The numbers don't care about my feelings, and neither should you.
**The code is still open source**
Everything: [github.com/Temple-Stuart/temple-stuart-accounting](https://github.com/Temple-Stuart/temple-stuart-accounting)
If something looks wrong, tell me. That's literally how every version of this got built.
**TL;DR:** Last week I showed you a scanner that finds trades. This week I made it honest (real probability math, real expected value, transparent estimates), gave it institutional-grade filters (16 controls across 3 tiers), added live social sentiment from X/Twitter, and closed the loop between "algorithm says buy this" and "here's what actually happened when I did." Testing with real money starts today.
This is not financial advice. I am still just a crazy guy who can't stop building things at 2am.