No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
no investment thesis
Comments22
▶ Full Post Text
I’ve been building a small web tool (buffettvaluator.com) to sanity check valuation thinking in a “Buffett-ish” way: focus on fundamentals, conservative assumptions, and explicit margin-of-safety logic.
I am not trying to sell anything here, I would genuinely like the community’s critique on:
1) What assumptions are most likely to quietly break the analysis (cyclicals, banks/insurers, commodity producers, heavy SBC, etc.)?
2) What inputs/normalizations tend to mislead people (TTM vs normalized earnings, buybacks, one-offs, inflation regime changes)?
3) What would you recommend to increase precision and reduce false positives?
If anyone’s open to it, I’d love feedback on:
\- the decision flow (what gets checked first, and why) - I sort of made up as I went along;
\- the way “margin of safety” is operationalized - again just read a little on this and decided to add it, however, not a lot of thought is put into this;
\- and any “red flag” heuristics you’ve found reliable in real investing - I would like to add that for future, where an AI model would then use the recent news and look for said "red flags" in news releases etc.
Link: [https://buffettvaluator.com/](https://buffettvaluator.com/)
(Usual disclaimer: educational only, not financial advice.)
PS: I used mostly CC and a bit of Codex, I have some background in programming but the idea was to get a prototype quickly.