BKNG vs EXPE

I read a post the other day about how early Buffett used to basically ignore DCF models, and just use a 3 checklist criteria when picking stocks. The criteria he'd look for was: 1. EV/EBIT < 7 2. \~15% returns in the first year 3. Company has a moat So I started looking for companies that came close to this criteria, and one company stood out: EXPE. Obviously Expedia is not alone in the travel industry space. BKNG has been the dominant player for years. So I started comparing the two: |**Metric**|**Booking ($BKNG)**|**Expedia ($EXPE)**| |:-|:-|:-| |**EV/EBIT**|**\~15.3x**|**\~17.0x**| |**FCF Yield**|7.24%|**12.8%**| |**The Moat**|**The Network Effect.** 28M+ listings and a dominant hold on the fragmented European market.|**The B2B/Tech Stack.** They power travel for banks and airlines (like the Ryanair deal).| # BKNG Out of the two, I think that Booking is the company Buffett would buy *today* (the "Quality at a Reasonable Price" version of Buffett). * **The Moat is wide:** Their **32.8% margin** is the proof. In Europe, hotels are small and independent; they can't afford their own marketing, so they *have* to pay Booking's commission. * **The Catch:** It fails the EV/EBIT < 7 test. At \~15x, it’s not a "cigar butt"; it’s a premium business at a fair price. # EXPE Expedia is closer to the "deep value" play, but it’s technically more expensive on an EV/EBIT basis right now than Booking is. * **The FCF:** That 12.8% yield is beautiful, but (like an insurance company) driven by float rather than true earnings. * **The Transformation:** Expedia is currently consolidating their entire portfolio into one product. Their **"Open World"** tech stack and B2B growth (up 24% recently). So, my question is which one would you pick? * The BKNG "quality" play, larger moat, higher margins. * The EXPE "turnaround" play, with higher buyback programs and higher FCF yields.