No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
The author explicitly labels the idea as a 'watch' and questions management's competence rather than expressing a directional investment judgment.
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Net debt is down so all the capex expansion has been funded from cash flow. Gross margin has dropped from the 40s to the 30s which would suggest all that capex was a bad use of capital.
But it does provide an opportunity for gross margins to now improve if the company can be more disciplined about supply additions.
ROIC spiked in 2022. Management obviously thought investing capital at that ROIC was a good idea but that return was not sustainable. ROIC is now zero.
Will management learn or not?