Update on $AMPL post earnings

I wrote my original thesis on Amplitude about a month ago. Yesterday they presented Q4 earnings and it seemed prudent to update my thesis. First: the entire SaaS panic is pretty amazing to watch across the board. I personally believe grossly exaggerated, but so much of it continues to be heavy positioning in semis. Ultimately, there will be winners and there will be losers when it comes to AI. Put simply, the winners will adapt meaningfully & quickly around their own strategic advantages. At some point, I believe the street will realize this reality and there will be some amazing software trades. I think it was clear on yesterday’s call that $AMPL is positioning themselves to be a winner. At times the call felt more like a keynote than earnings presentation. If you haven’t watched, it’s worth a listen. I’ve worked in product management for large tech companies for 10+ years and can say everything they are building is transformative & aligned with the modern product lifecycle. I’m excited to see it roll out. In my original thesis, I said I was looking to the Q4 call to see (1) AI features mentioned with real adoption metrics and (2) AI-driven case studies. Skates nailed both of those, to be honest better than I expected. As of February, agentic queries up 138x to make up 25% of total platform queries, from near zero. Real (large) customers like NTT Docomo reporting 90% reduction in analysis times. This is platform undergoing significant change. That said, there are also reasonable concerns. Guidance was soft. Market sentiment around SaaS is real, regardless of how rational I think it is. And biggest: not yet clear when these AI features show up on the balance sheet. They aren’t directly monetized (yet), so the benefit comes from volume expansion. That’s a second order effect that could take months to play out. I am much more comfortable in shares than calls for this reason. All that said, I am even more bullish than my original post. I expanded my position on Tuesday following the release of their new agents platform. I will likely buy more soon given confirmation of my thesis on the earnings call. $AMPL is not a question of if, but when.