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Went through SEC filings for Tuesday's earnings reporters and mapped out supplier/customer/competitor relationships and price correlations. Sharing what stood out if you follow any of these names and spot something off, let me know.
Correlations below are 3-month daily return correlations between companies with disclosed SEC relationships.
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## "Both Reporting Today" Correlation Pairs
Pairs where both stocks report on the same day AND have a disclosed SEC relationship. Might be worth watching one if the other surprises.
| Reporting Ticker | Company | MCap | Also Reporting | Relationship | 3m Correlation |
|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | $13.3B | LPX | Supplier (lumber) | **0.81** |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | $13.3B | TOL | Customer (homebuilder) | **0.78** |
| LGIH | LGI Homes | $1.4B | TOL | Competitor (homebuilder) | **0.73** |
| KNF | Knife River | $4.6B | VMC | Competitor (aggregates) | 0.53 |
| MKSI | MKS Instruments | $17.4B | ESI | Competitor (specialty chemicals) | 0.51 |
| CEVA | Ceva Inc | $0.5B | CDNS | Competitor (chip design IP) | 0.39 |
| SUN | Sunoco | $11.2B | ET | Partner (energy midstream) | 0.35 |
| ATRC | AtriCure | $1.6B | MDT | Competitor (cardiac devices) | 0.33 |
| PEN | Penumbra | $13.3B | MDT | Competitor (neurovascular) | 0.30 |
| USAC | USA Compression | $3.2B | ET | Partner (compression services) | 0.28 |
The homebuilder chain (LPX → BLDR → TOL/LGIH) is the standout. I posted about that one separately. Four companies in the same supply chain, all on the same day, 0.73-0.81 correlations. Both LPX and TOL are in CEO transitions right now.
How to read this: A 0.81 correlation means daily returns moved together 81% of the time over 3 months. Doesn't guarantee anything, but historically if one surprises the other tends to move in sympathy.
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## A Few Things That Stood Out From the Filings
*Pulled via automated process from 10-K, DEF 14A, and 8-K filings followed by some manual verification. If you follow any of these companies and this looks off, please flag it.*
### CEG: Highest Accrual Ratio Among Today's Reporters
Constellation Energy ($100B) is the biggest company reporting today. It has a Sloan ratio of **+0.117** the highest positive Sloan among today's reporters, meaning a larger portion of its earnings come from accruals rather than cash. Most companies reporting today have negative Sloan ratios (cash earnings exceed accruals). CEG also just closed its acquisition of Calpine (Jan 15, 2026), so this is the first earnings report incorporating the merged entity. Would be curious what CEG holders think about the accrual mix post-merger.
### CNH Industrial: Material Weakness + 652:1 Pay Ratio
CNH ($16B, BMO) disclosed a **material weakness** in internal controls in its latest 10-K management concluded ICFR was "not effective" and is actively remediating. It also has the highest CEO-to-median-worker pay ratio among today's reporters: **652:1** (CEO at $20.5M, median employee at $31,409). Its competitors Deere (0.73 corr) and AGCO (0.74 corr) don't appear to carry similar flags, though I haven't verified those as thoroughly anyone following DE or AGCO who can confirm?
### Pay Ratio Extremes
The widest gaps between CEO pay and median employee compensation among today's reporters:
| Ticker | CEO Pay | Median Employee | Ratio |
|:--|:--|:--|:--|
| CNH | $20.5M | $31,409 | **652:1** |
| PANW | (undisclosed) | $225,828 | **442:1** |
| CZR | (undisclosed) | $43,880 | **419:1** |
| LH | (undisclosed) | $57,316 | **337:1** |
| CEVA | $2.7M | $8,217 | **323:1** |
| BELFB | $2.0M | $7,080 | **284:1** |
BELFB's $7,080 and CEVA's $8,217 are from their proxy statements both have large overseas manufacturing workforces which pulls the global median way down. Not necessarily a red flag on its own, just notable context.
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## TSR: Who Crushed It vs. Who Got Left Behind
From proxy statement TSR tables $100 invested in the company vs. $100 invested in the peer group over 1 year:
**Top outperformers:**
| Ticker | Company | $100 → Company | $100 → Peer Group | Delta |
|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|
| DFIN | Donnelley Financial | **$599** | $198 | +$401 |
| BELFB | Bel Fuse | **$574** | $129 | +$446 |
| BLDR | Builders FirstSource | **$563** | $226 | +$337 |
| EQT | EQT Corp | **$447** | $211 | +$236 |
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific | **$375** | $215 | +$160 |
| TOL | Toll Brothers | **$338** | $227 | +$110 |
**Biggest underperformers vs. peers:**
| Ticker | Company | $100 → Company | $100 → Peer Group | Delta |
|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|
| CEVA | Ceva Inc | $117 | **$242** | -$125 |
| ALLE | Allegion | $113 | **$219** | -$106 |
| LGIH | LGI Homes | $127 | **$229** | -$102 |
| TCMD | Tactile Systems | $25 | **$104** | -$78 |
| CE | Celanese | $44 | **$96** | -$52 |
BELFB stands out turned $100 into $574 while its median employee earns $7,080/year. DFIN, a financial document solutions company with only 1,800 employees, nearly 6x'd while the peer group barely doubled. Anyone following either of these have a view on whether the momentum continues?
On the homebuilder chain: BLDR ($563), LPX ($375), and TOL ($338) all massively outperformed peers. But LGIH ($127 vs. $229 peer) significantly lagged. Curious if LGIH holders see the entry-level segment turning around the catch-up potential is notable given 0.73+ correlations with the rest of the group.
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## Other Things Worth Noting
### CEO Departures Heading Into Earnings
Three companies report under new or interim leadership:
- **EXE** (Expand Energy, $24.6B, AMC): CEO Domenic Dell'Osso resigned **February 6** 11 days ago. Interim CEO Michael Wichterich is at the helm. First earnings call without the former CEO.
- **LPX** (Louisiana-Pacific, $6.8B, BMO): CEO W. Bradley Southern retires February 19 (two days away). Successor Jason Ringblom takes over.
- **ROG** (Rogers Corp, $2.0B, AMC): CEO departed July 2025. Interim CEO Ali El-Haj has been running the company for 7 months.
CFO departures also hit FELE (interim CFO since March 2025), NEO (CFO retiring, successor appointed), and SXC (CFO retiring March 2026).
### Pending Mergers
Four companies report while under active acquisition agreements:
- **PEN** (Penumbra, $13.3B): Being acquired by **Boston Scientific** merger agreement January 14, 2026
- **KVUE** (Kenvue, $35.5B): Merging with **Kimberly-Clark** agreed November 2, 2025
- **ACLS** (Axcelis, $2.8B): Merging with **Veeco Instruments** agreed September 30, 2025
- **CDNS** (Cadence, $81.6B): Acquiring **Hexagon's design business** for **EUR 2.7B**
### Cross-Board Exposure: CE ↔ GKOS
Per proxy filings, David F. Hoffmeister appears to sit on the boards of both **Celanese** (CE, $6.6B) and **Glaukos** (GKOS, $6.3B). Specialty chemicals and ophthalmic devices very different companies connected at the governance level. Both report AMC. If anyone follows either name and knows more about this connection, please chime in.
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## Biggest Non-Reporting Correlations Worth Watching
These companies don't report today but are highly correlated with today's reporters:
| Reporting Today | Not Reporting | Relationship | 3m Corr |
|:--|:--|:--|:--|
| LGIH | TMHC (Taylor Morrison) | Competitor | 0.89 |
| BLDR | TMHC | Customer | 0.85 |
| BLDR | BCC (Boise Cascade) | Supplier | 0.84 |
| LGIH | PHM (PulteGroup) | Competitor | 0.82 |
| WSO | OC (Owens Corning) | Supplier | 0.80 |
| PANW | CRWD (CrowdStrike) | Competitor | 0.80 |
| FELE | DOV (Dover Corp) | Competitor | 0.75 |
| CNH | AGCO | Competitor | 0.74 |
| GPC | GWW (Grainger) | Competitor | 0.74 |
| HRI | URI (United Rentals) | Competitor | 0.72 |
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## Full Tuesday Earnings List
Ticker | Company | MCap(M) | Time | EPS Est | Flags
:--|:--|:--|:--|:--|:--
MDT | Medtronic | 129,330 | BMO | 1.33 | PayRatio 309:1
PANW | Palo Alto Networks | 113,479 | AMC | 0.93 | PayRatio 442:1
CEG | Constellation Energy | 100,054 | -- | 2.18 | Sloan +0.117 (highest accrual ratio today)
CDNS | Cadence Design | 78,484 | AMC | 1.90 | Acquiring Hexagon (EUR2.7B)
RSG | Republic Services | 68,373 | AMC | 1.62 | 10% insider ownership
ET | Energy Transfer | 62,694 | BMO | 0.34 |
CCEP | Coca-Cola Europacific | 45,657 | BMO | -- |
VMC | Vulcan Materials | 42,536 | BMO | 2.13 | Corr w/ KNF (0.53)
KVUE | Kenvue | 35,542 | AMC | 0.22 | Merger w/ Kimberly-Clark
EQT | EQT Corp | 35,684 | AMC | 0.73 | TSR $447 vs $211 peer
DTE | DTE Energy | 29,265 | BMO | 1.52 |
FE | FirstEnergy | 28,213 | AMC | 0.52 |
DVN | Devon Energy | 27,576 | AMC | 0.81 |
EXE | Expand Energy | 24,636 | AMC | 1.89 | CEO resigned Feb 6
LH | Labcorp | 23,055 | BMO | 3.95 | PayRatio 337:1
LDOS | Leidos | 21,919 | BMO | 2.57 | Acquiring Entrust ($2.4B)
GPC | Genuine Parts | 20,534 | BMO | 1.79 |
SGI | Somnigroup | 19,406 | BMO | 0.72 |
RBA | RB Global | 18,772 | AMC | 0.99 |
WSO | Watsco | 16,835 | BMO | 1.94 |
MKSI | MKS Instruments | 16,753 | AMC | 2.51 | Corr w/ ESI (0.51)
CNH | CNH Industrial | 15,817 | BMO | 0.11 | MATERIAL WEAKNESS, PayRatio 652:1
ALLE | Allegion | 15,331 | BMO | 2.01 | TSR underperformer vs peers
TOL | Toll Brothers | 15,407 | AMC | 2.05 | New CEO Mar 30, corr w/ BLDR (0.78)
PEN | Penumbra | 13,265 | -- | 1.12 | Merger w/ Boston Scientific
BLDR | Builders FirstSource | 13,333 | BMO | 1.30 | Supply chain hub, TSR $563
HL | Hecla Mining | 13,998 | AMC | 0.14 | Selling Casa Berardi
SUN | Sunoco | 12,047 | BMO | 1.64 | Corr w/ ET (0.35)
TFII | TFI International | 9,485 | AMC | 0.85 |
VMI | Valmont Industries | 9,206 | BMO | 4.95 |
HALO | Halozyme | 9,046 | AMC | 2.15 |
KRYS | Krystal Biotech | 7,837 | BMO | 1.62 |
ESI | Element Solutions | 7,773 | AMC | 0.36 | Corr w/ MKSI (0.51)
FLR | Fluor Corp | 7,361 | BMO | 0.34 |
LPX | Louisiana-Pacific | 6,539 | BMO | -0.06 | CEO retiring Feb 19, corr w/ BLDR (0.81)
CE | Celanese | 6,441 | AMC | 0.89 | TSR underperformer, cross-board w/ GKOS
GKOS | Glaukos | 6,131 | AMC | -0.22 | Cross-board w/ CE
HRI | Herc Holdings | 5,812 | BMO | 1.84 | Corr w/ URI (0.72)
RUSHA | Rush Enterprises | 5,548 | AMC | -- |
SSRM | SSR Mining | 5,264 | AMC | 0.59 |
KRG | Kite Realty | 5,317 | BMO | 0.51 |
MCY | Mercury General | 5,249 | AMC | 2.56 | 35.5% insider ownership
FELE | Franklin Electric | 4,890 | BMO | 0.89 | Interim CFO since Mar 2025
KNF | Knife River | 4,616 | BMO | 0.41 | Corr w/ VMC (0.53)
ITRI | Itron | 4,385 | BMO | 2.19 | Acquiring Locusview
WAY | Waystar | 4,159 | BMO | 0.39 | CBO departing Mar 2
CZR | Caesars Ent. | 3,878 | AMC | -0.18 | PayRatio 419:1
BHF | Brighthouse Financial | 3,664 | -- | 5.19 |
RSI | Rush Street Interactive | 3,645 | AMC | 0.10 | Sloan -0.274
USAC | USA Compression | 3,241 | BMO | 0.28 | Corr w/ ET (0.28)
BELFB | Bel Fuse | 2,931 | AMC | 1.68 | TSR $574, median emp pay $7K
ACLS | Axcelis Tech | 2,780 | AMC | 1.12 | Merger w/ Veeco
ANDE | The Andersons | 2,323 | AMC | -- | Acquiring 49.9% of TAMH ($425M)
HUN | Huntsman | 2,306 | AMC | -0.29 |
IOSP | Innospec | 2,153 | AMC | 1.26 |
HLMN | Hillman Solutions | 1,971 | BMO | 0.10 |
ROG | Rogers Corp | 1,960 | AMC | 0.60 | Interim CEO since Jul 2025
GSHD | Goosehead Insurance | 1,929 | AMC | 0.54 |
PBI | Pitney Bowes | 1,637 | AMC | 0.38 |
ATRC | AtriCure | 1,581 | AMC | -0.04 | Corr w/ MDT (0.33)
LZB | La-Z-Boy | 1,546 | AMC | 0.59 |
WTTR | Select Water | 1,496 | AMC | 0.01 |
NEO | NeoGenomics | 1,445 | BMO | 0.04 | CFO departing
LGIH | LGI Homes | 1,379 | BMO | 0.96 | Corr w/ TOL (0.73), TSR underperformer
NNE | Nano Nuclear Energy | 1,254 | AMC | -0.32 | 62 employees, mat weakness remediated Q4 2025
GLDD | Great Lakes Dredge | 1,153 | BMO | 0.20 |
DFIN | Donnelley Financial | 1,019 | BMO | 0.40 | TSR $599 (#1 today)
ORIC | Oric Pharma | 997 | -- | -0.34 |
GNK | Genco Shipping | 931 | AMC | 0.35 |
JBGS | JBG SMITH | 929 | AMC | -- | AMZN tenant (HQ2)
ARVN | Arvinas | 760 | -- | -0.55 |
BRSP | BrightSpire Capital | 737 | AMC | 0.16 |
TRTX | TPG RE Finance | 692 | AMC | 0.27 |
SXC | SunCoke Energy | 690 | BMO | 0.10 | CFO departing
BBNX | Beta Bionics | 597 | AMC | -0.42 |
PGC | Peapack-Gladstone | 591 | -- | 0.65 |
TCMD | Tactile Systems | 591 | AMC | 0.44 | TSR $25 vs $104 peer
CEVA | Ceva Inc | 542 | BMO | 0.18 | PayRatio 323:1, TSR underperformer
HIVE | HIVE Digital | 537 | BMO | -0.07 |