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I recently read Mauboussin's Expectations Investing and was very intrigued. Long story short, this led me to creating a ChatGPT prompt that could quickly spit out the growth, sales, reinvestment, and tax rates implied by a stock's current price. I have spent countless hours in this pursuit, and am finally getting close.
If you are unfamiliar with the book, I highly recommend Expectations Investing. After reading it, I found step by step tutorials here: [https://www.expectationsinvesting.com/online-tutorials](https://www.expectationsinvesting.com/online-tutorials)
Even with the book and clarification from ChatGPT, I have had a heck of a time trying to iron out all the details. But in a nutshell, you can find all the values you need for each step, put them into the "inputs" section of the spreadsheet, and it will spit out the calculation for you. Done manually, this is a time-intensive process.
So, I set out to create an automated workflow prompt with ChatGPT. I believe it is nearly dialed in (at least on the prompt engineering side).
My hope for this post is to start a discussion about Expectations Investing, including clarifying questions, as the tutorial can be vague in certain areas. I've done a decent search through reddit for a post like this one, but couldn't find anything. If anyone is aware of something, please let me know.
Otherwise, if you are indeed familiar with the process, I have some clarifying questions:
1) My goal is to pull all data from a Gurufocus stock report PDF. However, not all the fields in the "inputs" section are direct matches with fields listed on Gurufocus. For example, Tutorial 4's (Calculating Incremental Net Working Capital) Inputs table has a row called, "Advertising Fund Liabilities," however, no such metric exists on Gurufocus. I am encountering several other input rows with the same issue:
a) Inventories (Tutorial 4 Inputs Table)
b) Advertising Fund Liabilities (Tutorial 4 Inputs Table)
c) Acquisitions, Net of Cash Acquired (Tutorial 5 Inputs Table)
d) Cash Paid for Income Tax (Tutorial 6 Inputs Table)
e) Shares Outstanding (Tutorial 8 Inputs Table). Gurufocus lists 3 different variations; not sure which one the author recommends
f) Debt (Tutorial 8 Inputs Table). Gurufocus lists several variations.
g) Cash and Marketable Securities (Tutorial 8 Inputs Table). Gurufocus has a field for "Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Marketable Securities"; though I am not sure if this is a good proxy.
For a little context: I have been investing for about 3 years (more seriously and active over the last 2ish). I have read everything from Peter Lynch, to Buffet, Dalio, and Fisher -- probably around 20 books in total. Still, I would say my formal knowledge of investing is limited and I am really weak in areas that require some reading of balance sheets, income statements, etc. I have (what I consider) a large chunk of equities in the market and my goal is to be a millionaire (and beyond) in 2-3 years.
I hope this can turn into a hub for Expectations Investors moving forward, and I appreciate any and all feedback or suggestions. Happy hunting out there.