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Tomorrow, Tuesday February 17, 2026, in Geneva: second round of indirect US-Iran negotiations on the nuclear program, still mediated by Oman.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is already on site since yesterday. He met IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi and the Omani Foreign Minister. On the US side, expect Steve Witkoff (Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East) and apparently Jared Kushner could be involved as well.
Iran is signaling some flexibility on its stock of 60% enriched uranium (willing to dilute or bring levels down), but they are drawing a hard red line: no discussion of ballistic missiles or regional proxies. Trump keeps repeating he wants zero enrichment, while Netanyahu is pushing for full dismantlement of the program. At the same time, Iran just launched large-scale naval drills in the Strait of Hormuz never a good sign for oil markets.
Current prices tonight (February 16): Brent Crude is trading around $68.7 per barrel, up about 1.4% today on these tensions. WTI is roughly at $63.8. Gold (XAU/USD) is holding near $4,990 per ounce, and silver (XAG/USD) around $76.6.
Two pretty realistic scenarios for tomorrow and the days ahead.
If talks stall or end in a prolonged impasse, oil could spike quickly due to supply disruption fears through the Strait of Hormuz potentially +10–20% in days or weeks. Inflation expectations would tick higher again, safe-haven assets like gold and silver would keep climbing, and equities would come under pressure because expensive energy crushes corporate margins.
On the flip side, if we see a concrete advance even a partial one the supply risk evaporates and oil could drop fairly fast back toward $60–65. Overall volatility would calm down, risk assets would get a broad relief rally, and gold/silver would consolidate or pull back a bit. In any case, there will be volatility. I’ll first prefer to capture it through futures with leverage via Bitget TradFi it’s easier and more practical. But I mainly want to understand the long-term impact.
My personal take: it’s a true 50/50 right now. Iran desperately needs sanctions relief to keep its economy from collapsing, Trump wants a visible diplomatic win, but the red lines on both sides (zero enrichment vs untouchable missiles) make a real deal extremely tricky.
Assets to watch very closely tomorrow: oil (Brent and WTI) will be the main thermometer. Then gold and silver as fear/relief barometers. And of course the first leaks right after the talks usually around 3–6 PM CET via Reuters, AP, or X threads.
What do you think which way are you leaning? Oil spike if it fails again, or surprise relief if both sides give a little ground? If you’re trading commodities, feel free to share what positions you’re taking on this.