Astrology: Market Fall Coming This Week?

Feel free to bookmark it to tell me I'm wrong, but here goes anyway... About a year ago there was the 'Deepseek' thing. If yo'uve forgotten what all that fuss was about (fair) basically, a Chinese AI company made an AI model that seemed like it could do most of what the US models could do. With a pretty big difference: it could do it without spending a few hundred billion in capex (I wrote a post summarizing who was spending what[ here](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1qx093r/goog_im_spending_180b_on_capex_amzn_hold_my_beer/)). Basically the story then was 'AI is a commodity + China can do it way cheaper' (no idea if true, definitely not a software engineer or AI researcher). But the story kinda got legs and there was a minor bloodbath on the market. Everyone kinda freaked out that all the money big companies (META, MSFT, GOOG, AMZN) were shoveling into the pockets of the main AI chip supplier (NVIDIA) was being wasted so their share prices all fell for a few weeks. * Anyway, fast forward to October 2025 and all seemed fine (all went up and to the right becaues: "AI = great for revenue and profit, the more you spend the better!"). * Then from Oct 2025 - Feb 2026 they've all fallen as people start to worry that all that AI spending is gonna result in a lot of expensive AI sheds with expensive chips and expensive electricity without people buying products that will pay the very expensive bill for all those expensive AI sheds. Again, who knows. But what I think might happen this week (or in the next few) is that little Chinese company Deepseek might turn up in the news again with its new model. Last year they timed it with Chinese Lunar New Year, and we're around that time again (cause who doesn't love cutting-edge tech sprinkled with a little astrology, right?). For a little extra potential drama, last weeks little 'Saas-pocalypse' sell off where a few hundred billion dollars was wiped off dozens of (previously untouchable) SaaS companies was in part cause Anthropic / Claude dropped a new AI model that seemed like it was going to eat the lunch of a lot of those. No one really has any idea how good or bad this new Deepseek model might be. But you can be sure heaps of people are going to be watching for its drop, and if it's any good, there is almost certainly gonna be a whole heap of slightly panicky commentary about AI spend and then probably big share price reaction in a lot the same names that were affected last year (the big AI hyperscalers) and last week (the SaaS copmanies). Anyway, just my little bit of fun prediction for the week.