Bearish ADBE thesis arguing GenAI and Canva could erode Adobe's pricing power and multiple.
ADBE — SHORT Author argues Adobe faces structural risk from GenAI commoditizing creative workflows and low-cost rivals like Canva capturing 20–30% of TAM, eroding pricing power. Decelerating growth and very high margins would amplify downside if pricing pressure compresses margins and multiple. The catalyst is a potential slowdown to single-digit growth with margin compression; no specific timeframe is stated.
Very high margins leave more downside than upside if pricing pressure hits.