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Author argues Google's push for addictive personalization in Gemini Pro 3 has driven severe hallucination rates that will surface in damaging news and hit Google's stock.

GOOGL — AVOID The author claims Google prioritized addictive personalization in Gemini Pro 3, causing heavy hallucination: unable to verify facts in roughly 47% of open-domain queries, the model fabricates an answer about 88% of the time. He argues this will produce real-world harm (e.g., AI-invented case law) that becomes public news over coming months, and that an already panicky market will react badly to Google. The stated risk is timing/awareness, since he acknowledges many may already know and have acted; no price target or position is disclosed.

it's only a matter of time before a real problem is caused and shit hits the fan

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What I'm about to tell you is not some big secret, daily Gemini users should notice the difference already, but I think everyone is underestimating or downplaying the problem, it's only a matter of time before a real problem is caused and shit hits the fan.

Gemini Pro 3 has been hallucinating heavily the past 2-3 months, this is due to Google going all in on personalization and making Gemini no.1 directive and priority to be as addictive to the user as possible, this has meant very rarely refusing the user or not returning a detailed and interesting answer. All this led to A TON of hallucination, the numbers are shocking.

>In summary, while Gemini 3 Pro achieves higher overall factual accuracy (53–54%) than GPT-5.1 (28–35%) on open-domain queries, both base models exhibit severe overconfidence, hallucinating answers roughly 88–89% of the time when they do not know a fact. GPT-5.1's reasoning variant manages this flaw better by admitting ignorance more frequently, which reduces its open-domain hallucination rate to 51%. 

What this means is when a user asks a question, and Gemini cannot find verifiable or confirmed information to formulate an answer, which is about **47% of the time** now on open-domain queries, **88% of the time** it will confidently **invent a fabricated response**, and only 12% of the time it will safely admit that it does not know the answer.

Google has noticed this 2-3 weeks ago, and changes are already live now to address that, but I imagine there have already been a lot of work done in the last 2-3 months from all kinds of people in all lines of work using Gemini hallucinated information (Remember that case of the lawyer using AI to prepare for his case and it straight up invented multiple past cases to support his case? I suspect we will be see many more news like this in the coming months. ), all this will get out, and with how panicky the market already is.

I have no doubt that many people already know this, and probably have already acted, but it seems most people are not aware of the severity of this yet, I am not looking forward to find out how the market will react

Ideas

u/Aggravating_Path206 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Gemini hallucinations to trigger negative GOOGL news

The author claims Google prioritized addictive personalization in Gemini Pro 3, causing heavy hallucination: unable to verify facts in roughly 47% of open-domain queries, the model fabricates an answer about 88% of the time. He argues this will produce real-world harm (e.g., AI-invented case law) that becomes public news over coming months, and that an already panicky market will react badly to Google. The stated risk is timing/awareness, since he acknowledges many may already know and have acted; no price target or position is disclosed.

GOOGL & MSFT - A Looming Disaster Ahead

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