Author presents a detailed long thesis on Bumble (BMBL), arguing it is deeply undervalued based on steady-state margin/FCF assumptions and peer multiples, with a $10.2 blended price target.
BMBL — LONG The author argues BMBL is undervalued at $2.79 versus a blended price target of $10.2, using a projected steady state of $900M revenue, 25% EBITDA margin, 12% net margin, and 21% FCF margin. He applies peer multiples—10x EV/EBITDA, 12x P/E, and 2.0-2.5x EV/Revenue—to arrive at a blended market cap of about $1.55B and a $10.2 target, +366% from today. Catalysts include management's expectation that user attrition bottoms in Q1/Q2 2026, full cost-cutting benefits visible in 2026, and potential buybacks using FCF plus balance sheet cash. The main stated risk is that management may be wrong about attrition stabilizing, which would undermine the steady-state revenue and margin assumptions.
Bumble trades at 2.79$, I think it should trade at 10.2$
This Reddit post, published February 13, 2026, features u/Mrsoglio discussing BMBL. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/Mrsoglio · Tickers: BMBL