AUXLY DCF MODE (2/2) - Copy in to Excel | Reddit — r/ValueInvesting Ideas & AI Summary

YoloPutsJager · 2026-02-13T02:44:05+00:00

No qualifying investment thesis.

AI Summary

No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.

The author provides a financial model but does not express their own directional investment judgment or personal conviction; they are merely presenting a spreadsheet model for others to use.

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AUXLY CANNABIS — THREE-STATEMENT DCF MODEL								

All figures in C$ millions unless noted. Blue = hardcoded input. Black = formula.								

	FY2022A	FY2023A	FY2024A	FY2025E	FY2026E	FY2027E	FY2028E	FY2029E

INCOME STATEMENT								

Net Revenue	$94.7	$101.1	$122.3	$148.0	$170.2	$190.6	$209.7	$226.5

  Revenue Growth %		6.8%	21.0%	21.0%	15.0%	12.0%	10.0%	8.0%

  Growth Assumption					15.0%	12.0%	10.0%	8.0%

COGS	($66.3)	($66.7)	($66.0)	($71.0)	($78.3)	($85.8)	($94.4)	($101.9)

  Gross Margin Assumption	30.0%	34.0%	46.0%	52.0%	54.0%	55.0%	55.0%	55.0%

Gross Profit	$28.4	$34.4	$56.3	$77.0	$91.9	$104.8	$115.3	$124.6

SG&A	($37.9)	($38.4)	($35.5)	($38.5)	($40.8)	($43.8)	($46.1)	($49.8)

  SG&A % of Revenue	40.0%	38.0%	29.0%	26.0%	24.0%	23.0%	22.0%	22.0%

D&A	($7.0)	($7.0)	($4.5)	($4.5)	($5.0)	($5.5)	($6.0)	($6.0)

Other Operating Expenses	($5.0)	($4.0)	($3.0)	($2.5)	($2.0)	($2.0)	($2.0)	($2.0)

EBIT / Operating Income	($21.5)	($15.0)	$13.3	$31.5	$44.1	$53.5	$61.2	$66.7

  EBIT Margin	-22.7%	-14.9%	10.9%	21.3%	25.9%	28.1%	29.2%	29.5%

Interest Expense	($25.7)	($25.7)	($15.0)	($8.0)	($3.5)	($3.0)	($2.5)	($2.0)

Other Income/(Expense)	($15.0)	$46.9	($16.0)	($5.0)	-	-	-	-

Pre-Tax Income	($62.2)	$6.2	($17.7)	$18.5	$40.6	$50.5	$58.7	$64.7

  Tax Rate	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	5.0%	10.0%	15.0%	20.0%

Taxes	-	-	-	-	($2.0)	($5.0)	($8.8)	($12.9)

NET INCOME	($62.2)	$6.2	($17.7)	$18.5	$38.5	$45.4	$49.9	$51.8

ADJUSTED EBITDA								

EBIT	($21.5)	($15.0)	$13.3	$31.5	$44.1	$53.5	$61.2	$66.7

Add: D&A	$7.0	$7.0	$4.5	$4.5	$5.0	$5.5	$6.0	$6.0

Add: Stock-Based Comp	$3.0	$2.5	$5.1	$4.0	$3.5	$3.5	$3.5	$3.5

ADJUSTED EBITDA	($11.5)	($5.5)	$22.9	$40.0	$52.6	$62.5	$70.7	$76.2

  EBITDA Margin	-12.1%	-5.5%	18.7%	27.0%	30.9%	32.8%	33.7%	33.7%

FREE CASH FLOW								

EBIT (1-Tax)	($21.5)	($15.0)	$13.3	$31.5	$41.9	$48.1	$52.0	$53.4

Add: D&A	$7.0	$7.0	$4.5	$4.5	$5.0	$5.5	$6.0	$6.0

Less: CapEx				($6.0)	($11.0)	($8.0)	($7.0)	($7.0)

Less: Change in Working Capital				($3.0)	($4.0)	($3.0)	($2.5)	($2.0)

UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW				$27.0	$31.9	$42.6	$48.5	$50.4

DCF VALUATION								

WACC	14.0%							

Terminal Growth Rate	3.0%							

Terminal EBITDA Multiple (cross-check)	6.0x							

PV of FCFs (Sum of Yr 1-5)	$123.3							

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth)	$471.8							

PV of Terminal Value	$279.3							

Enterprise Value	$402.7							

Less: Net Debt (est. Q4 2025)	($15.0)							

Equity Value	$387.7							

Shares Outstanding (M)	1350							

DCF PRICE PER SHARE (C$)	$0.29							

Current Price	$0.12							

UPSIDE / (DOWNSIDE)	139.3%							

Here is the DCF model - paste in to Excel if you want to play with it

AUXLY DCF MODE (2/2) - Copy in to Excel

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