NFP Jobs Report: A US Headline Smokeshow?

This is a brief follow-up to my prior commentary, as the January employment data was freshly released this morning with a sizeable degree of dissonance. **Key Findings:** *\* The Headline Beat v Benchmark Delete:* The BLS reported 180k job additions for January, but the concurrent annual benchmark revision wiped 892k jobs from the 2025 totals. This confirms that the labor market was slowing significantly more than previously reported throughout last year. It also adds an element of distrust in modelling methodology and the headline print, when such discrepancies occur. \* *Historical Weakness*: Post-revision data establishes 2025 as the weakest year for job growth since 2003, excluding the GFC and the pandemic. Average monthly gains for 2025 were effectively approx 49k, indicating a hiring freeze. \* *Statistical Modeling Disconnect:* The 180k figure includes approximately 90k jobs attributed to the birth-death model. Given that business bankruptcies are at a 10yr high, modelling huge job creation from new firms may be significantly more a figment of imagination than fact. \* *Labor Market Composition:* The household survey reported a loss of 312,000 full-time jobs, offset by increased part-time and multiple-job holders. The gig economy increase is generally reflective of decreased in job security and sentiment. Dec JOLTS reports showed a Quit Rate of 2% on the lower end, suggestive of workers holding jobs in fear of security, rather than shifting to new positions which are generally associated with wage increases. On the whole this is a stagnating labor market dynamic. \* *Institutional Distrust:* The dismissal of the BLS head in 2025, and Hassett’s pre-emptive media appearance as part of market reaction management, poisons market sentiment and institutional trust. It appears the headline is optimised to mask the impact of the nearly 1-million job erasure. Keeping it short and sweet for today. 🍀