No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
Actionable sector view with causal rationale, but no specific asset named.
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I’ve done well out of this sector for obvious reasons. But in the last year or so things have stagnated and there are mini corrections every time there’s talk of a peace deal in Ukraine (and mini surges again whenever Russia reveals it doesn’t want peace…).
That’s understandable to some degree but it feels like there will be a price collapse if a ceasefire is agreed.
I find it surprising that the sector feels so sentiment based. The reality is supplying Ukraine isn’t the bigger revenue driver - but European rearmament is. I guess the market thinks Europe will gonslow if the war ends. I’d argue ending the war would mean Russia will have operating space again, and that should speed up, not slow down, European defence investment.
Any views from participants would be appreciated.