No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
Author expresses uncertainty and asks questions rather than a directional short judgment; no fundamental rationale for shorting BRK.B, only speculative sentiment/PR concerns.
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Hi folks - I´d like to briefly discuss the Berkshire of today. I get it: Berkshire has helped a ton of investors, Buffet is a legend, and so on. Not disputing anything regarding the past performance. Not intending to turn this into a nostalgic discussion either.
I am just generally wondering if we can still treat the "new" Berkshire like the "old" Buffet-Berkshire. Warren is out, sold a bunch of stocks (Apple, Verisign, etc.), now Greg Able takes over - so what´s next?
I mean if I am blatantly honest, I currently do not know why Able might not (or very well) be a suitable CEO. I just know too little about him. He seems to be an outside CEO (great), has a bit of a track record on the first glance (great), but then I wonder: What if we do what Munger always preached and do the inversion here?
What could possibly go wrong under Able? Personally I could see Berkshire drop a lot in case just some less fortunate news coverage appears on the web. Sentiment is driving markets more than it did the recent past years, and "losing" an epitome like Buffet certainly remains a shock. If just for PR reasons.
This has a cumulative effect with the already way too overpriced market and the incredible likelihood of this being a true AI bubble. Maybe even at the very edge of popping. Add a bit of Trump here and a bit of social turmoil there, then finish with a pinch of dollar devaluation, and it doesn´t look at all like sunshine and rainbows for Berkshire.
I am curious about your takes, folks - what are the pitfalls for Berkshire? How do you think in terms of future prospects?
Thanks in advance for bouncing off ideas.