No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
The author discusses the macro environment and bond yields but does not express a personal investment judgment or position to short TLT; they merely warn those who are long.
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Everyone is focused on the daily noise, but this is the actual signal.
The Kobeissi Letter just highlighted that China is instructing banks to limit purchases of US bonds. We all knew the soft decoupling was happening, but an explicit directive citing "sharp swings" is a massive red flag.
Think about the macro implication here: If the second-largest holder of US debt steps away from the bid, yield pressure is going to be insane. The Fed can't pivot if the bond market is having a liquidity crisis.
I've been tracking the TIC data, and the outflow was already visible, but this accelerates everything. We are looking at a structural change in global collateral. If you're long duration bonds right now without a hedge, good luck.
The era of easy foreign capital absorbing US issuance is over.