Correction to my previously VERY FLAWED analysis on Reddit. My New Reasonable Fair Value For RDDT: $108.

I posted this yesterday. I really effed up and got the ARPU for META wrong. The new reasonable fair value is $108. However, I m leaning in between the Reasonable Very Optimistic Scenario now because I think 65 dollars is tad bit low for 2030. [https://www.reddit.com/r/redditstock/comments/1qylso9/enough\_with\_the\_opinions\_here\_is\_the\_actual\_math/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/redditstock/comments/1qylso9/enough_with_the_opinions_here_is_the_actual_math/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) The ARPU assumption should be cut by half because I forgot to take into account META has 2 platforms, so its ARPU is actually coming from 2 platforms. I should have suspected something was wrong, it was higher than I thought. I apologize for the error. However, since the ARPU figure is based on 2025, and completely discounts future ad market growth until 2030, you can make your own adjustment to get a higher ARPU by 2030. However, i m not banking on that. To make it clear, I will put in simple english what i mean by this: **My Scenario:** Reddit will achieve 33% of META's 2025 ARPU by 2030 **The other possible scenario:** Reddit will achieve 33% of META's 2030 ARPU by 2030 I chose the first scenario and i m not banking on the second. Here is the new valuation table, all other assumptions remain the same. |\--- US SEGMENT ---|Bear Case|Reasonable Case|Very Optimistic|Ultra Bull| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |US DAU (million)|60|60|60|60| |US ARPU|$40|$65|$99|$198| |US Revenue (million)|$2,380|$3,927|$5,950|$11,899| |||||| |\--- EU SEGMENT ---||||| |EU DAU (million)|30|30|30|30| |EU ARPU|$14|$23|$35|$70| |EU Revenue (million)|$422|$697|$1,056|$2,112| |||||| |\--- ROW SEGMENT ---||||| |ROW DAU (million)|70|70|70|70| |ROW ARPU|$4|$6|$9|$18| |ROW Revenue (million)|$249|$410|$622|$1,243| |||||| |\--- VALUATION ---||||| |Total Revenue as of 2030 (million)|$3,051|$5,034|$7,627|$15,254| |5 year CAGR Growth (2025 - 2030)|6.73%|17.97%|28.19%|47.26%| |Net Margins|30%|30%|30%|30%| |Total Profit as as of 2030 (million)|$915|$1,510|$2,288|$4,576| |PE Ratio|18|23|25|28| |2030 Market Cap (million)|$16,475|$34,734|$57,204|$128,137| |Jan 2026 Mkt Cap (PV) (million)|$11,212|$23,640|$38,932|$87,208| |PV of Cumulative FCF + Net Cash (million)|$1,595|$2,170|$2,845|$4,602| |Fair Value per Share|$53.70|$108.23|$175.18|$384.98|