No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
accepted: macro thesis with causal rationale, though no specific tradable asset is named
Score15
Comments25
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I read a lot about how overvalued people think the market is, and they always use valuation metrics that compare current numbers to historical norms. But I suspect the historical norms are shifting and aren't going back. The internet, and the popularity of ETFs, have increased access to trading. Greater awareness of the benefits of investing means more people have employer-sponsored 401ks now than ever before. All of this means that investing, as a product in itself, is becoming more in demand. And what happens when a product is in demand? The price goes up ,and it can sustain those higher prices. It's why the Buffett indicator has become obsolete, and why I'm not sure things like PE ratios are going to revert to their historical norms. They will establish new higher norms because investing is in demand due to major permanent shifts in culture and access. Thoughts?