Author's DCF on Amazon yields a fair value of ~$151 versus a $210 market price, implying the stock is overvalued on his assumptions.
AMZN — AVOID The author runs a DCF on Amazon using ~11.94% revenue growth, ~12.55% operating cash flow growth, $50B/quarter CAPEX for seven years, and a 12.77% discount rate, arriving at a fair value of about $151 per share versus a $210 market price. The mechanism is that elevated CAPEX and a high discount rate compress intrinsic value below the current quote, so the author cannot justify the market price. The main stated uncertainty is whether CAPEX stays elevated due to cloud and AI demand or is temporarily elevated by a spending cycle. Horizon is the seven-year forecast period.
My DCF estimates fair value at \~151 dollars per share (share price on the market is $210).
This Reddit post, published February 07, 2026, features u/serodi03 discussing AMZN. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/serodi03 · Tickers: AMZN