Author argues AI-driven SaaS fears are overblown, is DCAing into software names, and highlights SNPS/CDNS duopoly, INTU's payroll moat, and SNOW/DDOG as startup-overhead beneficiaries.
INTU — LONG Author argues INTU's steep selloff is overdone because its payroll/accounting moat is protected: tech giants like Google, Amazon and Microsoft are unlikely to enter a $100B accounting market due to fiduciary and lawsuit risk, and AI-bound advisors are questionable. He notes his wife's small business lacks good payroll alternatives to Intuit, implying sticky demand. He is DCAing into software names and spread across most of them, suggesting he views INTU as a buy, though the main stated risk is code commoditization enabling new entrants.
I spent some time trying to understand why INTU in particular has been hit so hard. My wife has a small business and for payroll there aren't a lot of great options outside of intuit.
SNPS — LONG Author explicitly names SNPS as one of the safest bets for risk-averse investors due to its duopoly with CDNS in chip software, analysis and QA. He is DCAing into software names and views the AI-driven selloff as overdone, with strong earnings and capex reinforcing software growth. No specific risk or timeframe is provided.
The safest bets for those who are risk adverse are SNPS, CDNS (duopoly in chip software/analysis/QA)
CDNS — LONG Author explicitly names CDNS as one of the safest bets for risk-averse investors due to its duopoly with SNPS in chip software, analysis and QA. He is DCAing into software names and argues AI fears are overblown, with strong earnings and capex supporting software growth. No specific risk or timeframe is provided.
The safest bets for those who are risk adverse are SNPS, CDNS (duopoly in chip software/analysis/QA)
SNOW — LONG Author argues that despite seat-compression fears, new startups will create overhead in cloud hosting, security and data platforms like SNOW, filling some of the lost seats. He names snow among the beneficiaries and is buying software names broadly, implying a positive view. No specific catalyst or risk is stated.
You are always going to have overhead with these startups, cloud hosting, security, snow, ddog, you name it. Half of these "seat compressions" will be filled with the competitors trying to disrupt the kings.
DDOG — LONG Author argues that despite seat-compression fears, new startups will create overhead in cloud hosting, security and data platforms like DDOG, filling some of the lost seats. He names ddog among the beneficiaries and is buying software names broadly, implying a positive view. No specific catalyst or risk is stated.
You are always going to have overhead with these startups, cloud hosting, security, snow, ddog, you name it. Half of these "seat compressions" will be filled with the competitors trying to disrupt the kings.