No qualifying author-owned investment thesis was confirmed in this post.
Disney, automakers and Netflix are historical comparisons; the SaaS transition argument identifies no specific current software investment.
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We have seen what is happening in SaaS with Disney and Auto recently and it’s something Clayton Christianson warned about decades ago.
The Innovators dilemma is when a legacy cash cow business is being up ended by a less profitable but obvious future.
With Disney it was and is cable to streaming with cars it was ICE to EVs and with software it’s per user pricing to usage based licensing.
As AI takes hold it will kill the user model and likely be replaced with usage models or per user models with a smaller workforce. Either way you have a shrinking legacy book and new AI platforms that are likely to be more competitive.
If you look at stocks that go through this transition, the performance is generally not good. The legacy leader going through the transition almost always underperforms the pure play new leader.
DIS Vs NFLX
F,GM vs TSLA
With this in mind I’d bet accordingly