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Hello everyone
I am new to this subreddit and thought I would lead with a bold post specifically a bullish thesis on Pfizer to ingratiate myself with the titans of this community. 😂 All jokes aside, I believe this stock is significantly undervalued at current levels. Pfizer has navigated a volatile history: from the landmark 2000 acquisition of Warner-Lambert that initially propelled the stock to $40, to the more recent development of the COVID-19 vaccine that sent shares soaring toward the $50 mark. However, the stock has faced a steady decline over the last two years as the "pandemic-era" premium continues to fade from its valuation.
COVID-19 has essentially become 'old news.' For context, vaccine uptake among adults was 80%–90% during the height of the pandemic; as of the 2025/26 season, that figure has plummeted to just 17%. While this drop was expected, the financial impact is stark: Pfizer’s vaccine revenue has shrunk from a peak of $37 billion to a projected $5 billion a staggering 90% decline. Despite these headwinds, Pfizer is successfully pivoting into the high-growth weight loss and oncology markets. Using its pandemic windfall, the company has made aggressive strategic moves, including the acquisition of Metsera and a $43 billion buyout of Seagen. Moving forward, I will analyze the specific growth catalysts and potential weaknesses of this stock."
Tailwinds
Metsera: The obesity market entry through its acquisition of Metsera, Pfizer is now a serious player in the weight-loss space it took them a fair while but now they are making ground. Their drug, MET-097i, offers the convenience of monthly dosing. With Phase 2b progress and a potential Phase 3 launch expected in 2026, this drug is a key driver for Pfizer’s future stock growth. But as of yet it has not been commercially active this part of the business is a wait and see.
Seagen: Oncology market expansion Pfizer spent $43 billion to buy a company called Seagen, and that big investment is finally starting to pay off. Pfizer believes its cancer department (Oncology) will now be its biggest moneymaker. They are using a new, high-tech way to fight cancer called ADC technology, which acts like a guided missile to target cancer cells In 2026, the drugs Pfizer got from Seagen are expected to bring in a lot of money:
The Goal: Experts think these drugs will add between $3.5 billion and $4 billion to Pfizer’s total sales this year.
The Star Drug: A drug called Padcev (used for bladder cancer) is the biggest success so far. It is selling very fast and is a major reason why Pfizer’s overall business is starting to grow again.
Cost Cutting
Pfizer is going on a massive diet (you see what I did there) to trim $7.7 billion in costs by 2027. The goal is to fix their profit margins so they have the cash to grow again now that the COVID boom is over. The main worry is that they might cut too deep into their research, but they’re trying to avoid that by putting all their chips on cancer drugs and weight-loss meds It's a cut to grow strategy.
Valuation
Your probably wondering why Pfizer is only valued at $26 a share well the main reason for this is the dilution currently the stock has 5.69 billion shares. Despite this low price the company remains a profit powerhouse generating a gaap net profit of $9.4 billion in last twelve months a level of raw profit that far exceeds many high-flying tech stocks. In addition to great profits the company also owns 200 billion dollars in Assets. With a GAAP PE ratio of 15.4x its an absolute bargain its far below the historical average in this industry of 20x or higher.
Potential Headwinds
Patent Cliffs
Pfizer is facing headwind's the major one is patent cliffs. When a drug company like Pfizer invents a new medicine, the government gives them a patent. This is a "No Trespassing" sign that lasts for about 20 years. It legally prevents any other company from making or selling that same drug, allowing Pfizer to charge a higher price to pay for the billions of dollars it spent on research. This will lose them revenue overtime as generic manufacturers such as Teva and Novartis will start manufacturing the drugs and buying the patents but im still confident that Pfizer will replace this lost revenue.
Medicare Price Negotiations
The U.S. government recently gained the power to negotiate prices for several high-expenditure drugs through the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). This legislation could significantly reduce the amount Pfizer is permitted to charge for certain medications. Most notably, Pfizer’s top-selling blood thinner, Eliquis, was among the first drugs selected for these price reductions, with the impact taking effect this year, in 2026. However, I believe the overall impact will be negligible. With the Trump administration's pro big business stance, I anticipate that the government will not force prices low enough to severely damage Pfizer’s bottom line, potentially shielding the company from the worst-case regulatory scenarios.
Overall opinion
I believe the stock has a lot more upside than downside, considering the valuation at $26 a share. I believe it is an absolute bargain. The current status of the stock being a 'slow-moving giant' with potential headwinds and lower revenue is largely fear-mongering from COVID-19 and previous struggles. Yes, I understand that patent cliffs are fast approaching, but I am confident they can replace this revenue with their oncology division and maintain strong brand support from doctors (there not gonna run out of cash anytime soon).Unlike risky tech stocks, this will be a slow mover, but it will move up in a healthy, gradual way until it reaches $50 or more. As of now I have not bought a position yet but once the hype from earnings goes down and Implied Volatility reduces Im going to buy alot of 2028 call options I would consider this a long term investment 2-5 years. I am still debating the strike price suggestions below are welcome.
LBM invests
ps Supported by his/her/they/them gracious AI being of Gemini.
This is not financial advice.