European value play 🧻

NVG – The Navigator Company: misunderstood European value play I’ve been looking at $NVG (The Navigator Company), a Portuguese pulp and paper company listed on Euronext Lisbon, and I think it’s an interesting undervalued value + dividend play that gets dismissed too easily. The common bear case is simple: “paper is dying”. That narrative has been around for 15+ years, and yet Navigator continues to generate cash, remain profitable, and pay solid dividends. Some points worth considering: • Navigator is not just “office paper”. It is vertically integrated, controlling forest assets, pulp production, paper, packaging materials, and biomass energy. • While printing and writing paper is structurally declining, packaging paper and sustainable fiber-based products are growing, driven by plastic substitution and regulation. • The company operates in a cyclical industry, which is exactly why the stock trades at low multiples. Cyclicality creates discounts even when the business remains viable. • Strong free cash flow in normal cycles supports high dividend yield, which the market often misinterprets as “no growth” rather than “capital discipline”. • Europe in general trades at a valuation discount vs the US, and industrial value names like this one are hit the hardest. At current levels, $NVG trades closer to trough-style valuations despite still being profitable and operationally solid. You’re not buying a growth story or a tech multiple here, but rather a cash-generating industrial business priced as if decline is imminent. This is not a moonshot. It’s a patience play. If paper demand stabilizes rather than collapses, and packaging continues to grow, the current valuation looks overly pessimistic. Curious to hear other takes, especially from people following European value stocks.