NKE at $61... am i missing something?

u/SmartTriageIO · Reddit — r/stocks · February 02, 2026 at 01:26 · ⬆ 255 pts · 💬 185 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Original Reddit post

Author argues Nike is a value trap at $61 given premium valuation on shrinking earnings and weak ROIC, waiting for $45.

NKE — AVOID Author argues Nike trades at 36x earnings, above its historical average, while revenue is flat or negative, so investors are paying a premium for shrinking earnings. A DCF assuming recovery to $3 FCF/share yields only ~$58 fair value, and ROIC has fallen to 10%, barely covering cost of capital. Author calls it a value trap until earnings bottom and is waiting for $45 to get a real margin of safety.

Feels like a value trap until earnings actually bottom. i'm waiting for $45 to get a real margin of safety.

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u/SmartTriageIO Reddit r/stocks
Nike value trap, wait for $45
Author argues Nike trades at 36x earnings, above its historical average, while revenue is flat or negative, so investors are paying a premium for shrinking earnings. A DCF assuming recovery to $3 FCF/share yields only ~$58 fair value, and ROIC has fallen to 10%, barely covering cost of capital. Author calls it a value trap until earnings bottom and is waiting for $45 to get a real margin of safety.
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This Reddit post, published February 02, 2026, features u/SmartTriageIO discussing NKE. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/SmartTriageIO  · Tickers: NKE