Author concludes Nike is still expensive at $61 despite a 50% drop, citing high P/E, negative growth, weak ROIC, and competition from Hoka and On Running.
NKE — AVOID The author argues Nike is a value trap because its P/E is ~36x versus a historical average of ~30x while growth is negative at -29% forecast, meaning investors pay a premium for a shrinking company. Four valuation models including DCF, EBITDA exit, and fair P/E yield a fair value of ~$56, below the current $61 price. ROIC has dropped to ~10%, barely above cost of capital, while Hoka and On Running take share in running. The author would only buy if it flushes down to $45.
You are basically paying a premium price for a shrinking company. That’s a dangerous setup.
This Reddit post, published February 02, 2026, features u/SmartTriageIO discussing NKE. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/SmartTriageIO · Tickers: NKE