NKE is down 50%... but the math says it’s still expensive.

u/SmartTriageIO · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · February 02, 2026 at 01:17 · ⬆ 205 pts · 💬 107 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
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Original Reddit post

Author concludes Nike is still expensive at $61 despite a 50% drop, citing high P/E, negative growth, weak ROIC, and competition from Hoka and On Running.

NKE — AVOID The author argues Nike is a value trap because its P/E is ~36x versus a historical average of ~30x while growth is negative at -29% forecast, meaning investors pay a premium for a shrinking company. Four valuation models including DCF, EBITDA exit, and fair P/E yield a fair value of ~$56, below the current $61 price. ROIC has dropped to ~10%, barely above cost of capital, while Hoka and On Running take share in running. The author would only buy if it flushes down to $45.

You are basically paying a premium price for a shrinking company. That’s a dangerous setup.

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u/SmartTriageIO Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Nike value trap; buy only at $45
The author argues Nike is a value trap because its P/E is ~36x versus a historical average of ~30x while growth is negative at -29% forecast, meaning investors pay a premium for a shrinking company. Four valuation models including DCF, EBITDA exit, and fair P/E yield a fair value of ~$56, below the current $61 price. ROIC has dropped to ~10%, barely above cost of capital, while Hoka and On Running take share in running. The author would only buy if it flushes down to $45.
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This Reddit post, published February 02, 2026, features u/SmartTriageIO discussing NKE. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/SmartTriageIO  · Tickers: NKE