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Hi everyone,
I have been going through Ray Dalio's World Order cycles. I know there are many in this community that are skeptical about his thesis. I am also a bit skeptical but he does make a few compelling points. I am considering how it would influence Buffet's investment strategy. I can't see many sources on whether Buffet considered Dalio's thesis. To be fair, it was probably irrelevant when Buffet was most active as an investor.
The way Dalio's thesis may impact my investment includes:
1) MOAT include geopolitics/multipolar world considerations. Either two companies doing the same thing (eg defense) or a companies that are very good at navigating a multi-polar world (NVIDA? GOOG?).
2) Loss of USD value and how it impacts discounting future earnings
3) how to interpret historic P/Es/margins and CAPEX with rapid devaluation of USD. Whether we call it inflation, or the expected fall of USD in the face of rising emerging economies, or systematic debasement - ultimately, the effect is the same.
4) More diversification rather than concentration in a few equities.
I am interest to hear what you have say. Has it influenced how you invest? Is this all hogwash?