In my previous post I reviewed my prediction performance for 2025 and now after some mediation and thoughts on wins and losses of the previous year I designed a plan for the year 2026. So I write this post about year 2026 plans but I want to also note that I think 2025 in history might be remembered for one important event: i think for finance the most important thing of 2025 is how gold performed against “digital gold”. I am not sure if crypto even can ever recover from this. If trust in it as a store of value is lost then there is no point for it to exist... But who am I to judge. Here is my plan for 2026:
My primary approach will remain similar and that is to balance high levels of short term bonds with dividend paying stocks that are rotated frequently. This approach kept my portfolio safe and provided even though lower than SP500, but still a decently high return of 11% so far.
This approach will be adjusted as I keep learning more about powerful tools in investing called - derivatives. So the first change to my portfolio design will be to add options. I will use primarily Put options for the stocks that I buy. I decided to buy some more riskier stocks including recently dropped tech stocks, possibly NFLX, ORCL, META and CRM. These more riskier bets will have to be augmented with corresponding Put options for the expiration date somewhere in 2027 or 2028. These Put options will serve as an insurance and cap my potential losses. I plan to execute these transactions during the next two months. Depending on the success of this approach I might expand to other stocks.
The second change I did this month is that I decreased my defense stock exposure by 75% as they grew a lot in price and my portfolio started to be overweight with that. I am still bullish on defense but I just don’t like to be overweight with one category of stocks.
Later in the year I want to start also playing with Call options as a method to boost a return on the most confident bets. I will only buy those for the stocks I have the highest confidence.
I will do some international investing too, primarily into Latin America.
Finally I will continue to closely watch the day-to-day market especially in the coming few months as I still expect a higher risk of a short lived but potentially significant correction. I will use the correction to enter certain positions.
Unfortunately the limiting factor for me in investing is my inability to value non-cash-flow-generating assets. I simply cannot put a price for assets such as commodities, gold, crypto... That is why I cannot invest into them because for me only cash flow generating assets can be valued with classic methods so I am only left with stocks and bonds to invest...
That is my rough roadmap for 2026 and of course if something changes I will blog about it. I will be adding Option related features to Tickernomics and I will blog about that later in the year.