Author argues Indian markets are overvalued due to inexperienced FOMO investors but remains constructive on long-term India equity returns of 9-12%.
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People make markets overvalued:
Indian markets are said to be overvalued. Its people that make markets over or under valued not the companies. A lot of hate is given to the companies themselves, highlighting that they are not innovative or into AI. Sure that is true but indian companies are never known to be innovative. The indian theme has always been cheap service or pharmaceuticals export or growing domestic population.
New FOMO Investors with no experience:
You would have read a common theme of Reddit post. Stating they are absolute beginners and are looking for 5-10k SIPs. Or even students starting out with 500rs investments. Add a large bunch of them together and you have a new type of investors who has never invested before and started investing looking at YouTube. Someday its small cap, or defense or now commodities where people are looking at even copper as an investment!
India is still better than most (apart from USA)
Not everything is bad about india. Apart from the USA and a handful of EU countries. The vast majority of countries don’t have a mature or meaningful equity market at all. India has been a beneficiary for the last 2 decades as a alternative to the developed world. Taiwan, china, Singapore Korea all have had their problems in the past. The reason they did better is they have done badly in the past and not really grown as consistently as india. So yea India is taking a breather and needs more time for profits to grow naturally.
What happens next:
Sure in the meantime we will loose out the impatient or fomo investors. But the ones in the longer term know even returns of 9-12% for not doing anything is better than money sitting in the bank or FD.