The author presents a bullish DD on SELLAS Life Sciences ($SLS), citing delayed Phase 3 REGAL event rates, new FDA Bayesian guidance, a February 2026 IDMC catalyst, short-squeeze potential, and M&A platform value.
SLS — LONG The author argues SLS is a long because the Phase 3 REGAL trial's slower-than-expected death rate implies the GPS arm is extending survival. They say the FDA's Jan 12, 2026 Bayesian Methodology guidance allows the IDMC to borrow Phase 2 data and potentially stop for superiority in February 2026 when the trial hits the 21-month median survival match from Phase 2. They also cite ~30% short interest and 19+ days to cover as a squeeze setup into a superiority headline, with the catalyst window in Q1 2026.
The combination of a significant slowdown in event rates (deaths) and the FDA’s new Jan 12, 2026, guidance on Bayesian Methodology creates a high-probability setup for an early "Superiority" stop.
SLS — LONG The author argues SLS could be a bolt-on acquisition target for Merck, which faces a Keytruda patent cliff in 2028 (~$40B annual revenue) and has shown appetite for smaller platform deals after walking away from a $30B deal. They cite SLS's existing Merck collaboration (GPS + Keytruda) and GPS's WT1 target across 20+ cancer types as making it a plug-and-play asset. They outline buyout scenarios of ~$40/share for a $5B deal or $100+ for $12B+ platform value.
Merck faces a massive patent cliff for Keytruda in 2028 (~$40B annual revenue).
This Reddit post, published January 27, 2026, features u/LionLukeWay discussing SLS. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/LionLukeWay · Tickers: SLS