I saw this chart of US debt and I couldn't help but wonder if the unthinkable could happen, the USG defaults on its debt.
A low probability, no doubt, but not impossible.
So my question isn't so much about what would happen if the US defaulted, but rather, how does one go about analyzing the risk of that happening.
And to generalize it even further, how do you perform risk assessments in general, from the downside, to the upside to the catastrophic?
I have a few real estate investments and some cash in the market, but most of my decisions are based on the analysis of others. I have never built my own framework for evaluating risk and I'd like to have a better basis for my decisions beyond vibes.
Thanks!