Author presents a data-driven bullish thesis on Snap Inc., arguing Snapchat+ subscriber growth is underappreciated and implies strong subscription revenue growth.
SNAP — LONG Kevory collected 13k+ self-reported friend counts and found 16.75% of friends subscribed to Snapchat+, about 4x Snap's reported 3.56% DAU subscription rate, implying 35%+ QoQ growth in subscription revenue. The mechanism is Snapchat's policy requiring users with >5GB memories to pay or lose excess photos/videos starting September 2026, which the author believes will drive conversions despite user outrage. Subscription revenue is claimed to be valued at twice ad revenue, so this growth should be accretive to Snap's valuation. The main stated risk is that the sample is a fraction of the user base and may include inactive accounts, exclude Platinum and cheaper storage tiers, and be affected by annual discounts.
The sample rate of 16.75% suggests (16.75%/3.56%) 4x the rate of Snapchat+ subscribers, suggesting 35%+ revenue growth QoQ.