Author argues B2Gold is an undervalued gold miner whose past underperformance is ending as Goose CapEx completes, the gold prepay agreement expires after 2Q26, and peers trade at roughly twice its valuation.
BTG — LONG The author argues B2Gold is an exception among gold miners, with its +70% since 2024 underperformance being short-sighted because the reasons the market punished it are ending: Goose's large CapEx is completed, over-budget and delay issues are resolved, and the gold prepay agreement (66 koz per quarter at ~$2200/oz) ends after 2Q26. Starting in 2H26, its mining assets will produce 1.1 Moz of gold annually at a low AISC of ~$1,500/oz, and at $5.2/share with a $7.8Bn enterprise value, peers with similar production and costs are mostly valued at twice that. This does not count the $600Mn equity investment as of Jan 2026 or the $0.9Bn NPV of the Gramalote project with gold modelled at $2500/oz. The main stated uncertainty is Mali, which the author says is uncertain yet not as devastated as many think.
Starting in 2H26, its mining assets will produce 1.1 Moz of gold annually at a low AISC (cost) of \~$1,500/oz. At $5.2/share and an Enterprise Value of $7.8Bn, its peers with similar production and costs are mostly valued at twice that.
This Reddit post, published January 26, 2026, features u/InformationOk4114 discussing BTG. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/InformationOk4114 · Tickers: BTG