I've been following the Uranium market for a while now and wanted to start writing about it as a way to crystallise what I've learned and improve my ability to communicate it clearly. Writing isn't my strongest skill, so this is an attempt to kill two birds with one stone.
My first article is a high-level primer on the uranium market. It covers:
tl;dr
**Supply side:** Global production sits at around 140M lbs per year, roughly 30% below current demand of 179M lbs. New mines take 10-15 years to build, and producers are holding back production until prices hit the $90-120/lb incentive range. Major producers (Kazatomprom, Cameco) control most output, and secondary supplies like government stockpiles are depleting.
**Demand side:** Demand is forecast to nearly triple by 2040 (390M lbs), driven by China and India's reactor buildouts, SMR deployment, life extensions at existing plants, AI/data centre electricity needs, and energy security concerns post-Ukraine.
**Bull thesis:** The setup is asymmetric. Downside appears limited given inelastic demand and prices below incentive levels. Upside is harder to cap in a supply-constrained market with urgent buyers. Timing is uncertain, but analysts expect prices to move within 1-2 years.
The article is intentionally kept accessible rather than deeply technical. I'll be releasing a more detailed investment thesis in the coming weeks.
The [Substack](https://substack.com/@theuraniumdesk/note/p-185711037?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=392rxk)
I would genuinely appreciate any feedback on presentation, layout, or how I've communicated the ideas. If you think I've missed something important or have an alternative view on any of this, I'd love to hear it.
Thanks!