My 2026 thesis: Q1-Q2 Bear Market, Q3-Q4 recovery (US Stocks)

Hello all, I just wanted to share my thesis for 2026 and have your opinions whether i might be wrong or right before putting my money on the table (i probably will still do it anyways :) ) TLDR; I am short Q1-Q2 on US stocks and crypto, and will look for a recovery in Q3-Q4 going long. Thesis: 1) Global liquidity started to dry up around September 2025, bitcoin & crypto topped on October 2025 (The most riskiest asset that reacts very quickly to global liquidity cycles). Currently the bitcoin price action looks incredibly similar to 2022 (the first drawdown already happened and btc price is hovering around 90k). Meanwhile the stock market is still at ATH and did not yet price in the global liquidity top (Stock markets lags crypto in liquidity cycles). The convergence between crypto and stock market is not possible unless black swan events in crypto, which did not occur. 2) What will cause the bigger drawdown in the global liquidity is Japan. Japanese Yen is bleeding and with the latest intervention at the limit of 160 USD/JPY, shows that Japan won't give up that limit and the Yen will increase in value, going forward they will increase rates to strengten Yen and decrease global liquidity. As yen is crucial for the american equities (carry trade ongoing for decades), this will cause the drawdown in the us stock market to a near bear market. The political side of this is that Japanese Prime Minister will held snap elections. Snap elections are generally held because there is no time and there will be a switch in economic policy that is considered unpopular for general public after the elections (Rate hikes that is). The most popular example of this might be the Turkish election cycles where interest rates are kept low offering cheap credit to public before elections and after elections interest rates are increased dramatically. 3) The reason Trump wants the FED to raise rates to aggressively is to offset this global liquidity crisis in their own central bank, however the FED will not rise interest rates until end of Q2, essentially lagging in the price of equities. After FED's injection of liquidity in the system, btc and equities will start to rise again. Your comments?