I am a firm believer of the Indian growth story and have invested 80% of my total savings in Indian equity. But in recent times, I am very sceptical about the GDP and inflation numbers published by the government.
Governments numbers:
In Q2 of 2025-26, the government estimate is 8.2%.
The same period inflation is 1.8% (simple average).
So the nominal growth rate is 10% (using addition for simplicity).
Mine:
Assume the government estimate is true for the organized sector: 8.2%
The organised to unorganised ratio in India is 45% After the demonetisation and GST implementation the organised sector have grown more at the expense of unorganised sector. But again, optimistically, I take the unorganised sectoral growth as 0%.
Then the real growth for Q2 2026 become 3.69%.
Again, I believe the CPI basket is obsolete (last updated in 2013), I think it should be atleast 3.5% (just see the medical and electronics goods inflation for reference).
Now if we account for the difference, then my real GDP number becomes 1.9%.
It still positive but no where near the valuations we are seeing in the current market. What is your number?