Tesla's stock price is being floated to obscene valuations (250-300 in recent months) in part by promises of robotaxis. That implies whatever Tesla is doing is going to be phenomenally profitable. But what evidence is there that this business model can even do that?
So far Tesla's best competitor is Waymo, a subsidiary of Google, who are the number one name in autonomous taxis. The thing is, on Google's [SEC filings](https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/GOOG-10-Q-Q3-2025.pdf), Waymo's revenue is just grouped into the "Other Bets" category and that came to only $344M in revenue (not profits) in Q3 2025. If being placed into the "Other Bets" category doesn't inspire confidence, what can?
Now for comparison, Tesla's [Q3 revenue](https://assets-ir.tesla.com/tesla-contents/IR/TSLA-Q3-2025-Update.pdf) was $21B, and that number needs to be meaningfully improved. So we are to believe Tesla is going to come onto the scene and in a matter of a few years do something to this industry that Waymo couldn't do in over a decade? All while having worse self driving technology and being further from approval than Waymo was several years ago? Ok.