Author presents a bullish thesis on Snap Inc. based on AR glasses, paid storage/Snapchat+ monetization, a Perplexity AI deal, and buybacks reducing the impact of dilution.
SNAP — LONG Author argues Snap's AR glasses release this year is a catalyst: if the glasses fail and are scrapped, Snap saves roughly $1B a year in R&D, turns cash-flow positive, slows dilution, buys back more stock, and likely re-rates; if they work, upside is larger. The main stated risk is that Snap has failed four times before with the project, though the author believes this time is different.
If the glasses fail and he scraps them, Snapchat saves roughly $1B a year in R&D, turns cash-flow positive, slows dilution, buys back more stock, and the market probably re-rates the company. If the glasses actually work, the upside is even bigger.
SNAP — LONG Author argues charging for storage will push users to pay or upgrade to Snapchat+, and the math is favorable: with Q2 2025 ARPU near $0.96 per user per month versus Snapchat+ at $3.99, only about one in 4.15625 lost users must pay to replace lost revenue. He adds that users who stop saving photos still use the app and lower AWS/storage costs, calling this a significant monetization catalyst. The main stated risk is user churn, but the author argues it should be minimal and partly offset by lower storage costs.
For every 4.15625 users that leave Snapchat due to storage costs, just one has to pay for its premium service for Snapchat to make the lost revenue back.
SNAP — LONG Author argues Snap's $400 million/year Perplexity deal is a game changer because Perplexity will integrate its AI into Snapchat, likely bringing new users to Perplexity and leading to a contract extension or higher value next year. He also suggests Snap could use Perplexity's AI in its glasses, tying the deal to the AR hardware catalyst.
Snapchat signed a $400 million/year deal with Perplexity. Perplexity will integrate its AI with Snapchat, and this is huge for both companies.
SNAP — LONG Author argues Snap's dilution is less severe than reported because the company repurchased $500 million of stock from 2022–2025 and held $3.0 billion in cash and marketable securities as of September 30, 2025; RSU stock comp remains high but buybacks are often ignored. He expects cash burn to end once the glasses release, allowing more buybacks and a re-rating.
They bought back $500 million worth of stock from 2022–2025. RSUs were valued at $1.3 billion in 2022–2023 and $1 billion in 2024–2025, which is by no means low, but it’s important to mention that no one mentions the buybacks.