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If you’re anything like me, you’ve been constantly rebalancing your portfolio for the last few months. Scared of an AI bubble, scared of fomoing into gold and silver, scared of a orange man induced market crash
While doing this recently, I fell down a rabbit hole and found a play I think could be an easy 10-bagger. It’s a long story so please grab a drink or read the TLDR
**The Tungsten squeeze**
The Trump/Greenland stuff has really spun me out. Claiming it’s for defense yet most European countries are rushing to stop him - when in reality American building defenses there would benefit them too (v simplified). To me it had to be something deeper, so started digging
As a shock to absolutely nobody, what I found were precious metals…and lots of them (see pic). Tungsten was one that really piqued my interest. I remember hearing about China’s plan to stockpile it and cut off trades, so started digging deeper
What I didn’t know is that tungsten is one of the most vital precious metals there is. From defense and aerospace to tech, infrastructure, and even light bulbs, its unique characteristics make it insanely valuable, and in the world we live in, it’s necessary.
The price of Tungsten has squeezed 2x in 2025 thanks to China, why? They own nearly 85% of ALL global tungsten. So if there’s a global conflict, or even if there isn’t, the fact that there’s a real demand for this and nobody can access it is already causing problems
So I started digging again, and to my surprise one of the largest tungsten mines in the WORLD is not only based in the UK, but isn’t currently operational
**The big Tung**
It’s owned by £TUN Tungsten West
They bought the mine from an old company who failed to execute. They damaged ore, pissed off councils and locals, leaving a mine that if fully productional, would produce as much tungsten as the entirety of Russia, dead in the water
£TUN bought the mine and have been actively pushing to restart it. Huge side note here, it’s immensely cheaper to restart an existing mine than to find a new one, work out if it’s even logistically worth the time and investment etc.
The issue has been debt. But recent restructurings have opened a path to success. Lansdowne, a huge player in the mining space converted their debt into 30% of company equity, betting on its success, and there’s a meeting this month to finalize ‘B shares’ to avoid further dilution.
They have an entirely new management team, and recently, some random guy called Nigel Reed acquired a 3% stake. This man owns a WINE DISTILLERY?! what does he know about tungsten?! Why would you buy so much of a debt ridden company that owns a non operational mine?
Unless…he sees the vision
Here’s the big picture. China owned 85% of tungsten, and nobody has reliable ways of sourcing it…except for one absolute wildcard the UK. The UK also needs to stop being so reliant on the US, if they need tungsten and have to go to the us, enjoy the tariffs!
This is the most no-brainer decision to get this mine up and running, something the company predicts should happen by 2027. All the while, demand is soaring, the price of tungsten is squeezing, geopolitics are running rife, strengthening demand, cycle continues
The stock is up 40% the last few weeks, but this is the first time in years (since when asts was at $4) I don’t care. If it goes lower I welcome it. I got in two days ago and plan on adding weekly until something happens to change my thesis
Just like the penguin meme ‘but why?’. My portfolio might die, but at least it lived.
It’s a HUGE risk. A lot can go wrong, the financials are still pretty bleak. But the UK is sitting on an asset worth billions, and to me it feels like smart money is waking up.
TLDR: China have tungsten in a chokehold, there’s a random non-operational mine in the UK that is one of the biggest in the world that £TUN is trying to get going again.
I’m calling this trade the big tung
Happy to hear your thoughts and comments. I’m not an expert and if anyone familiar wants to fact check or pull me up, please do. But to me this is a highly risky play that could very easily 10-50x if everything goes to plan