MP Materials ($MP) - How is this still so cheap?

MP Materials is the only Rare Earth Mineral company in the US that is trialling magnet producing. They are currently trialling Neodymium-Praseodymium magnets and expect to ramp up production, introducing DyTr later for military grade magnets. At the moment, they have no bottlenecks in the mining of minerals - it is all in the production plants which have already been paid for. Lots of upside here. The refining operations in California have been a source of trouble historically, and in Q3 2025 MP reported a 48% utilization rate for refining the raw minerals into Neodymium-Praseodymium (producing 721 Metric Tons). They also produce byproduct materials like Lanthanum and Cerium which are used in filtration and catalysts, but these are small additional sales.  However, the key reason I believe there is true value here is the limited downside at the current price of $70. Yes they are still making a small loss (Q3 saw big CapEx for their new plant in Texas and ongoing utilisation issues) but they are sitting on nearly $2bn of cash giving them a significant buffer to iron out the operational wrinkles. The NdPr magnets which they are currently trialing are mainly used in EVs and Wind Turbines, however if you fortify it with Dysprosium and Terbium you get military grade magnets suitable for missiles and fighter jets. These have incredible profit margins at scale. These Heavy Rare Earths (Dysprosium and Terbium), are currently being stockpiled until they can begin producing magnets in Q2-Q3 which will be a huge revenue stream with even higher margins than the NdPr (50%-75%) that is not even being factored in yet. There is absolutely uncertainty here, but, the DoD has guaranteed a price floor of $110/kg for these magnets vs. the Chinese \~$75/kg price, effectively giving them a guaranteed profit margin once they start producing them. Moreover, the DoD effectively holds around 15% ownership interest through warrants in MP Materials, so they have a vested interest in getting the company operational.  The current sentiment does not seem to be very optimistic given that they are <12 months away from producing DyTr reinforced mil-spec magnets, let alone that they are currently producing NdPr magnets. If they hit 80% target operational efficiency and produce 4,800MT of NpDr magnets annually they could be looking at EPS of $2+ While fair value may be closer to $80, if supply shocks hit the scarcity premium could easily push this to $120-180… TL:DR At $70 I think there is limited downside vs upside with a lot of room to run especially under Trump