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Below I **repeat each question verbatim** and place the **answer immediately after it**, following your rules on wording (“about” for estimates, “assuming” for assumptions).
**1) How many people were included in the trial?**
**Answer:** assuming **126 people** were included in the REGAL Phase 3 trial.
**2) How many are in the control group that are untreated?**
**Answer:** assuming **63 people** were in the control (untreated) group.
**3) What is the median life expectancy of the control group?**
**Answer:** about **7 months** (commonly cited historical median overall survival for this AML population, with a reasonable range of about 6–8 months).
**4) If the treatment of the treatment group (non control group) had no effect, when would the entire group have had 60 deaths?**
**Answer:** about **March–April 2024**, assuming exponential survival with a 7-month median and enrollment midpoint around **October 2023**.
**5) When did the entire group actually have 60 deaths?**
**Answer:** about **January 23, 2025**.
**6) If the treatment had no effect, when would the entire group have reached 80 deaths?**
**Answer:** about **May–June 2024**, assuming the same 7-month median survival and no treatment benefit.
**7) Have the entire group reached 80 deaths yet?**
**Answer:** **No**, as of the January 2025 data point discussed, the trial had reported **60 deaths**, not 80.
**8) If the control group had the expected mortality rate, at what date would they have had their proportion of the 60 deaths?**
**Answer:** about **January 2025**, because under expected mortality the **control arm alone (\~63 patients)** would account for **about 50 deaths** by \~15–16 months after enrollment midpoint.
**9) If the expected number of deaths actually happened in the control group, what is the estimated life expectancy of the treatment group?**
**Answer:** about **5 years (≈60–65 months) median overall survival**, assuming:
* \~50 of the 60 deaths occurred in the control group,
* only \~10 deaths occurred in the treatment group by January 2025,
* and exponential survival modeling.
# Bottom-line interpretation
Under standard survival assumptions, the **timing gap between expected and observed deaths** implies that the **treatment arm is surviving many years longer than the historical control median**, which is why the continued absence of events is so informative even without unblinding.