Listen up I spent the last three years getting violated by a commodity that literally comes out of the ground and I decided the only logical solution is to double down with 10x leverage.
The Flawless Thesis from Jan 2023
I had a brain moment. I looked outside, saw it was cold, and realized that people use gas to stay warm. I figured I was the first person in history to discover the correlation between winter and heating. I bought in and waited for my yacht.
The Mistake
Instead of buying something sane I picked up WisdomTree Natural Gas ETC. I didnt know what contango was or how rolling costs work. I just thought green line equals good.
The Pain
I have been the bagholder. I watched the price drop like a stone while the FX rate did me dirty too. I am sitting at a 77 percent loss. +20% day change of gas recently give me like 2% gain on my leftover.
The Revenge
It is now January 2026. There is a Polar Vortex hitting the US and my 2023 thesis has returned like a vengeful ghost. I am moving my last surviving crumbs to trade the NATGAS ticker with 10x leverage.
The Plan
I am betting everything left in the holding bag on the storage report tomorrow at 16:30 CET.
The market consensus is a draw of 154 Bcf. If the number comes in higher like 180 Bcf because of the freeze I regain my honor and maybe enough money to buy heater.
If the draw is weak I will be at zero and finally free from the emotional abuse this trade has put me through.
TLDR Bought WisdomTree Natural Gas in 2023 because winter is cold. Lost 80 percent to drop, fees and FX. Now it is cold again so I am going 10x leverage on NATGAS to either break or go outside sunbathing because it will finally be warmer.