Built a systematic framework to assess correction probability. Posting for accountability and feedback.
**Core Thesis**
60 to 65% probability of 20 to 35% correction in 2026, highest risk Q2.
**Key Indicators**
\- CAPE: 40.80 (second highest in 155 years)
\- CRE maturity wall: $2.9T through 2027
\- Office CMBS delinquency: 11.31% (exceeds 2008)
\- ON RRP: Depleted from $2.5T to \~zero
\- Regional bank CRE concentration: 312% Tier 1 vs 300% guidance
\- Berkshire cash: $400B+ record, 12 quarters net selling
**Summary:** 26 bearish, 6 neutral, 3 bullish across 35 indicators in 8 categories.
**My Positioning**
57% defensive (42% SGOV, 18% gold, 20% VIG, 15% VTI, 5% crypto)
**Falsification**
By June 30: CRE absorbed, spreads below 350 bps, Buffett deploys = thesis invalidated.
Full framework: [https://archive.org/details/2026-the-porcelain-bull\_202601](https://archive.org/details/2026-the-porcelain-bull_202601)
**Question:** I'm weighting ON RRP depletion heavily but it has no historical analog. How should novel indicators be weighted versus established metrics with longer track records?