Author shifts to 57% defensive positioning for 2026 after building a 35-indicator framework; he expects a 20–35% correction with 60–65% probability, concentrated in Q2.
SGOV — LONG Author allocates 42% to SGOV as short-term Treasury exposure because he sees a 60–65% probability of a 20–35% correction concentrated in Q2 2026. In a 30% crash this positioning limits the portfolio loss to about 10% versus 23% fully invested, while a 25% rally captures only about 13% versus 21%. He says heavier SGOV may be smarter for the initial shock.
Maybe heavier SGOV is smarter for initial shock.