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Hello,
As The Trade Desk approaches a new 52 week low, I have continued to accumulate shares and am building a six-figure concentration towards this stock.
The stock, while is currently being seen as a "loser" is a historical winner and has outperformed the broader market since the last decade.
The main reason for the stocks continued slide is fears regarding slowing growth, valuation concerns, and execution.
However, for 2026 (and beyond) the tailwinds from this sector should continue to allow for the company to grow, and expand.
(I would also like to point out there has been a huge amount of poorly written posts about this company, both in positive and negative light)
**The DSP Market:**
The reason the stock was previously trading at such a heft valuation is due to the sector they are part of. Research suggests that the DSP market will continue to grow at a 22.5-23% CAGR until 2034. It is expected to grow from a market of 19.5B in 2026 to 123B in 2035.
As such, it is one of the highest growing subfields of the tech economy.
Currently, TTD has a \~18% penetration of the market.
**Growth (moderating?):**
TTD, historically, has grown at a 20%+ rate. In the recent term:
2023: 23-24% YOY growth
2024: 25-26% YOY growth
This year, the fear is that TTD's revenue growth will moderate. However, let's look at the numbers for 2025:
Q1: 25%
Q2: 19%
Q3: 18% (22% when adjusted for heightened political spend in 2024)
So far, Q4 the guidance is 13% growth (or 18% when adjusted for political ad spend increase for 2024).
However, let us remember that guidance has been conservative for TTD this year, with Q1 guidance being roughly 17-18% and ended at 25%. Q3 guidance was 14%, and the results were 18%.
Let us assume the TTD revenue growth for Q4 is only 13%––the revenue growth for TTD would then be \~19% for the year.
Let us now adjust for political ad spend: \~21%.
Let us now assume that Q4 revenue growth slightly beats, and hits 15% (20% when adjusted for political ad spend): \~21.5%.
This growth rate of \~21.5% does not seem significantly lower than the previous years.
In fact, this is highlighted by Stifel's Mark Kelley, one of the "better" analysts.
You can verify from this [article](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stifel-reaffirms-trade-desk-inc-131518752.html), and his [profile](https://www.tipranks.com/experts/analysts/mark-kelley).
**Valuation:**
The company, while sound, previously traded at a steep valuation. The reason being that the runway for this company is massive. The DSP market will continue to expand and grow, and TTD would be no exception.
However, the company's growth is now being reassessed, and it is projected that grow roughly 16%+ until 2030 and slowly ease down to 14% growth.
This correlates with a PE of 28.38 for 2026 and a current estimated PE of 22.04 for 2027. This would be on a GAAP basis (so adjusted for SBC). Some sites estimate a 17 forward PE ratio on a non-GAAP basis (which might be tricky to justify due to the high SBC).
Compared to other "tech companies" (Google, Amazon, or MSFT) TTD trades at a cheaper forward PE ratio. Similarly, not only does it trade at a cheaper 2026/2027 PE ratio, but also has significantly higher slated growth.
**Amazon Threat:**
The reasons I see for which TTD has stumbled this year is:
\- Poor execution at the top level (Kokai rollout was a disaster)
\- Tariff uncertainty has shaken ad budgets
The Amazon threat, while real, needs to be considered with more analysis. The claim that Amazon produces the same product, at a very cheap rate, is not practical.
Commentary from those who use Amazon DSP is that Amazon's DSP is not ideal, lacks feature offerings, and attempts to target Amazon's own inventory.
Let us now consider that Google's DSP used to target the open internet, but over time, it has shifted away from the open internet and towards their own inventory. Why? Because constant lawsuits, scrutiny, and lack of margins caused them to realize it would be better to prioritize their own walled garden approach. This is well-documented in Google's ad-tech trial. Internal documents from Google showed that TTD was eating at their share.
Now, Amazon is attempting to eat from the capacity that Google has left. However, they also run the risk of overreach.
* Amazon's DSP would lose money unless the ad spend is being sent towards their own inventory.
* If they are fine being a "loss leader," this would send them to the courtroom and would run the same risk Google had. Similarly, a huge share of the DSP market growth is International, and Europe truly enjoys suing big tech companies for overreach.
It is also important to mention that TTD is not the biggest player in the DSP market. Amazon's efforts mostly compete with Google as Google tries to find their footing without being sent back to the courtroom.
**Wall Street:**
* Analysts are optimistic, though they are lowering price targets out of caution.
* However, "sell" ratings have started to be upgraded due to valuations being very low and "risk" being priced in.