Deep Value Plays

I am sharing my due diligence on deep value plays where I beleive the market over reacted and present a good upside and risk to reward ratio. LRN (Stride Inc) Share price has collapsed 60% from its recent high of $171 to $69. This was driven by am operational failure and legal/litigation risk. The operational failure relates to an failed upgrade to enrollment portal, which resulted in loss of 10k-15k students. As a result, the guidance was slashed from 12% growth to 5%. The litigation issue relates to a school district accusing the management of inflation enrollment numbers i.e. collecting state funds for students who don't log in. Bankruptcy risk is very low with net cash of $161 million. Debt to EBITDA ratio is 1.17. suffice to say that they can survive a winter or two. No risk of total loss of capital. Business performance: Despite the stupid OT failure, total enrollment is up 11% YOY and vocational is up 20%. My math (explained later) suggest that the guidance cut is purely due to the massive IT failure not structural or secular decline. Let's assume the higher range of lost enrollment at 15k. Blended revenue per enrollment (based on FY 26 rate) is approximately $9.6k, let make it $10k for easy of computation. That equates to $150mil in revenue. Now, this matches perfectly with 6% or so drop in guidance on projected FY26 revenue of 2.5B billion. Catalyst: At such low valuations, it is trading at 6 times EV/Earning before tax (but after interest multiple), buybacks can make significant impact on returns. The management authorised $500 mil in buyback right after the drop. Here is a caveat, typically, Stride hasn't done much buybacks so I am hoping they will follow through on the execution of buyback. If they do, at these prices they can retire 15% of outstanding shares!!! Plus, FCF is above $300 mil. Mr Market is offering this to us today at 12.5% FCF yield (not excluding SBCs). Risk: If the 'Ghost student' probe takes traction, then legal bills and fines will eat cashflow. Assuming $200 mil (made up number in thin air) in settlement, it is equivalent to $5 per share cost. I also assume that they would have fixed their enrollment portal by next year. In summary, we are looking at a business trading at 6 times pre tax income against EV with potential for big buybacks and return to normal business growth from next year onwards. Progressive Corporation (PGR) I know, I know, this is insurance. Insurance is a hard business. It is really hard to know who is swimming naked until the tide goes away.. and all that. But this is one business where Buffet and Munger themselves have praised albiet indirectly. The stock price has come down from $292 to $202. I believe it is a great guy (not just deep value but a long term compounder under $207). PGR was held accountable to 'excess profit' ($95 mil) by the state of Florida!!! Yes, read that again! The second reason is analyst predict the customer acquisition costs will go up in the coming financial year. The balance sheet is pristine. Management returns capital via variable dividends funded by excess free cashflows (no financial engineering). In addition, in late 2025, net premiums grew 15% and policies grew +12%. The binding strategy (Auto plus home) is limiting customer churn. Return on Equity is in mid 30s and it is currently trading at 11 PE. I believe a great entry for long term hold. CROX The controversial one and slightly more risky bet. Fashion has no Moat. Have you not heard of Dexter shoes. Why does BRK not won any shoe companies? Have you looked at NKE recently. All valid points, but here my arguments out. The math makes sense. First thing first, HEYDUDE was a BIG failure. No two ways about it. They have penanced (big impairment charges) but atonement for that empire building sin is still not achieved. But they are on the right path. Balance sheet check: Debt to EBITDA is at a comfortable 1.17. Even if EBITDA collapses by 30%, they will still be sitting at 2.3x, which is managable. The management has been focused on cleaning the balance sheet via debt payback (positive sign). Business Quality: Global footwear volume is flat-to-down in the casual segment. Crocs is no longer benefiting from the pandemic "comfort boom." This is possibly the biggest risk. HEYDUDE revenue declined 20%. Clogs is polarising.. it does run the risk of going out of fashion. That said, we saw LULU and DECK also decline in sales growth during the same period. That to me suggests, there is more to the story than change in customer taste and preferences. Feel free to disagree here. Now the magic, I mean math part. Buyback yield is above 7%. They retired 4mil shares since last quarter alone. SBC is minimal in CROXs case (another win). Final thesis: if revenue drops 2% but share count drops 7%, EPS grows 5%. At P/FCF of less than 6, it is priced as if it will go bankrupt. I believe Clogs have a floor. The buybacks alone will generate returns as long as overall business doesn't collapse faster than 5% rate. And yes, HeyDude is the albatross around their neck! Copart - CPRT (Duopoly, premium one is CPRT) This is not a deep value play. This is a structurally sound wide moat business on sale. I saw a post last week about it. But surfacing here again to help reach it to more people. Fortress balance sheet. $5billion in cash. The issue is decline in volume growth (-8.4%). Revenue stayed flat because of price increases. This is due to lower accident frequency and fewer hurricanes (boon to mankind can be painful for capitalist, lol). They will be around in 10 year. EVs are harder to repair and more likely to be totaled (Total Loss). Copart owns the land (landfills for cars) which is nearly impossible to replicate (NIMBY laws). Lastly, there is no cannibal effect in place here. They are hoarders of cash. Sitting on $5B cash but thankfully they are not empire builder either (phew). The stock can be dead money until volume climb back up. It is currently valued at just under 20 EV/EBIT. I allocated around 4% of my portfolio to this company when it was in high 30s. This is a great wide moat businesses going through temp decline in volumes. Notable mentions CMCSA would have qualified, but I'd like to see it fall another 5-7% from current level especially after the spin off. NICE: From my investigation, this is a value trap. HRB: Its on my watchlist, I will consider buying under $38. And our beloved PYPL: I think under $56 it is a value stock. Again, its the math of buyback at depress valuation. The bears are right, the wide moat and hyper growth days are over. Its a cash cow utility but can be profitable if purchased at cheap enough price. Hope this helps. This is my contribution to help my fav sub-reddit useful for folks from who I get to learn new ideas every day. Thank you!!